• Iran Proxy Axis · Escalation83▲ +19Severe → Critical: 83 out of 100, critical
• Iran–US · Strait of Hormuz Maritime Disruption84▲ +14Severe → Critical: 84 out of 100, critical
• Russia–Ukraine · War Economy and External Dependency Strain83▲ +10Severe → Critical: 83 out of 100, critical
• Russia–Ukraine War · Combat and Long-Range Strike Intensity85▲ +7: 85 out of 100, critical
• Houthis–Saudi Arabia · Red Sea–Bab el-Mandeb Shipping Disruption65▲ +7: 65 out of 100, severe

Hollow dot: before · filled dot: now · 4 Pulses changed band · Pulses younger than 7 days are measured from their first reading

• Brazil presidential election Lula vs Flavio Bolsonaro6.2%of headlines● newly reported · 8 vs 0
• Russia-Ukraine war and European security architecture5.7%of headlines▲ rising · 11 vs 3
• Gaza war and UNGA diplomatic fallout6.3%of headlines▲ rising · 4 vs 3
• Rogue AI agents and AI-enabled cybercrime5.3%of headlines▲ rising · 4 vs 4
• Pneumonic plague death and quarantine in Irkutsk2.1%of headlines▲ rising · 1 vs 1

No forecasts resolved yet — the record starts now.

• 5 OctDailyRussia sustained Dnipro bridge strikes for fourth day and vowed wider Kyiv hits as Germany locked €9.8bn arms deals; Ethiopia retook Mekelle while Hormuz stayed shut and Gaza targeted killings continued
• 5 OctDailyRussia hit Kyiv's bridges a second day as Germany pledged $1.1bn in Kyiv, Hormuz stayed shut on Iran's seven conditions, and Ethiopian federal forces retook Mekelle
• 5 OctPulseState Fragility and Insurgent ControlStarts at 70 of 100
• 4 OctDailyRussia hit Kyiv bridges and traded nuclear-Article 5 warnings as Ethiopia and Eritrea cut ties and Gaza strikes continued under Hormuz closure
• 3 OctPulseWest Bank Annexation and Settler ViolenceStarts at 55 of 100