JudgmentForecasts · scored
Paper trader and track record
“The desk” is Ohmega's own forecasting. For each question it writes a probability before the answer is known, blind to any market price, and stores it unchanged. Open forecasts are the ones still waiting for an outcome; the scored view marks resolved ones against what happened and against Polymarket's prices, misses included. Paper only: nothing here is financial advice.
9 independent paper bots, $10,000 each. Each researches our corpus, forms its own probabilities and trades. A bot is one way of reasoning; its desks run it on different cadences and horizons. Click a desk for its full positions and trades.
Day · ≤2 dThree runs a day, markets settling within two days$10,283+$283 (+2.8%)16 open · $2,670 at riskNORussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?$485+$2NOUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?$485+$2NOKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?$485+$4+13 morelast Oct 30 20:41Znext Oct 31 08:40Z
Value over time
Style: Opportunistic: picks its own bets, 0 to 2 days out. Forecasts: 59 made, 15 resolved, Brier 0.025. Exposure 27% (floor 0%). 34 trades. Win rate: n=7, too early. Cash $7,598.
Recent forecasts
| Market | Its view | Market | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 93% | 93% | open |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | 3% | 5% | open |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | 98% | 99% | open |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 96% | 96% | open |
| Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? | 1% | 1% | open |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? | 1% | 0% | open |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | 1% | 0% | open |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 30? | 85% | 87% | open |
Floor positions (opened only to keep exposure up, no real edge): 33 opened. floor (no edge): 6 closed; chosen: 1 closed.
Open positions (16)
| Market | Side | Entry | Now | Stake | Unrealised | Resolves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?whyFloor activity buy - no real edge, small NO position to meet 30% floor. Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by Oct 31 very unlikely in 43h. | NO | 99c | 99c | $485 | +$2 | Nov 1 03:59Z27 h left |
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?whyFloor activity buy - no real edge, small NO position. US-Iran final nuclear deal in 43h extremely unlikely. | NO | 99c | 99c | $485 | +$2 | Nov 1 03:59Z27 h left |
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?whyFloor activity buy - no real edge, small NO position. Kharg Island change of control in 43h very unlikely. | NO | 99c | 100c | $485 | +$4 | Nov 1 03:59Z27 h left |
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?whyFloor activity buy - no real edge, small NO position. Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing in 43h very unlikely. | NO | 99c | 100c | $485 | +$4 | Nov 1 03:59Z27 h left |
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?whyfloor activity - no real edge, adding NO position near market price to meet 30% floor | NO | 99c | 100c | $210 | +$2 | Nov 1 03:59Z27 h left |
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?whyfloor activity - no real edge, adding small NO position sized near market price to meet 30% floor | NO | 96c | 98c | $200 | +$3 | Nov 1 03:59Z27 h left |
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?whyfloor activity - no real edge, adding small NO position near market price to meet floor | NO | 99c | 100c | $200 | +$2 | Oct 31 21:59Z21 h left |
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 30?whyActivity floor fill - no real edge, Saudi action Oct30 priced high, small position for floor | YES | 95c | 80c | $20 | -$3 | Oct 31 03:59Z3 h left |
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?whyfloor activity - no real edge, adding small YES position near market price to meet floor | YES | 97c | 97c | $20 | +$0 | Oct 31 20:29Z19 h left |
Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?whyfloor activity - no real edge, adding small NO position near market price to meet floor | NO | 99c | 99c | $20 | -$0 | Nov 1 03:59Z27 h left |
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?whyfloor position to meet activity requirement, no real edge, small size | YES | 98c | 99c | $10 | +$0 | Oct 31 16:00Z15 h left |
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?whyfloor position to meet activity requirement, no real edge, small size | NO | 99c | 100c | $10 | +$0 | Oct 31 16:00Z15 h left |
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?whyfloor position to meet activity requirement, no real edge, small size | NO | 99c | 100c | $10 | +$0 | Oct 31 16:00Z15 h left |
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?whyfloor position to meet activity requirement, no real edge, small size | NO | 99c | 100c | $10 | +$0 | Oct 31 16:00Z15 h left |
Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?whyfloor position to meet activity requirement, no real edge, small size | NO | 99c | 100c | $10 | +$0 | Oct 31 16:00Z15 h left |
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?whyFloor trade to meet 30% activity; ceasefire continuation priced high and no break reported | YES | 96c | 94c | $10 | -$0 | Oct 31 23:59Z23 h left |
Trades, newest first
| Date | Trade | Market | Price | Amount | Realised | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Buy NO | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | 99c | $190 | open | floor activity - no real edge, adding NO position near market price to meet 30% floor |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 97c | $10 | open | floor activity - no real edge, adding small YES position near market price to meet floor |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy NO | Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? | 99c | $10 | open | floor activity - no real edge, adding small NO position near market price to meet floor |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy NO | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? | 99c | $190 | open | floor activity - no real edge, adding small NO position near market price to meet floor |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy NO | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | 99c | $10 | open | floor activity - no real edge, adding small NO position near market price to meet floor |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy NO | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | 96c | $190 | open | floor activity - no real edge, adding small NO position sized near market price to meet 30% floor |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 96c | $10 | open | Floor trade to meet 30% activity; ceasefire continuation priced high and no break reported |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy NO | Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? | 99c | $10 | open | Floor trade to meet 30% activity; accusation market priced near zero with no evidence in corpus |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy NO | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? | 99c | $10 | open | Floor trade to meet 30% activity; ceasefire by Oct 31 priced near zero and no catalyst in corpus |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy NO | NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? | 99c | $10 | open | Floor trade to meet 30% activity; very low YES price implies NO highly likely within 37h |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy NO | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | 98c | $10 | open | Floor activity buy - no real edge, small NO position. US announcing end of Iran blockade by Oct 31 unlikely. |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy NO | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | 99c | $485 | open | Floor activity buy - no real edge, small NO position. Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing in 43h very unlikely. |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy NO | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31? | 99c | $485 | open | Floor activity buy - no real edge, small NO position. Kharg Island change of control in 43h very unlikely. |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy NO | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026? | 99c | $485 | open | Floor activity buy - no real edge, small NO position. US-Iran final nuclear deal in 43h extremely unlikely. |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy NO | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | 99c | $485 | open | Floor activity buy - no real edge, small NO position to meet 30% floor. Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by Oct 31 very unlikely in 43h. |
| 2026-10-30 | Settled | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 29? | n/a | $21 | +$1 | The market resolved YES; the YES position paid $21 on $20 paid in. |
| 2026-10-30 | Settled | No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | n/a | $505 | +$5 | The market resolved YES; the YES position paid $505 on $500 paid in. |
| 2026-10-30 | Settled | Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | n/a | $20 | +$0 | The market resolved NO; the NO position paid $20 on $20 paid in. |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy NO | Will SpaceXAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | 99c | $10 | open | floor position to meet activity requirement, no real edge, small size |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy NO | Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | 99c | $10 | open | floor position to meet activity requirement, no real edge, small size |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy NO | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | 99c | $10 | open | floor position to meet activity requirement, no real edge, small size |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy NO | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | 99c | $10 | open | floor position to meet activity requirement, no real edge, small size |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | 98c | $10 | open | floor position to meet activity requirement, no real edge, small size |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 96c | $10 | open | floor position to meet activity requirement, no real edge, small size |
| 2026-10-29 | Settled | Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%? | n/a | $16 | +$6 | The market resolved YES; the YES position paid $16 on $10 paid in. |
| 2026-10-29 | Settled | Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting? | n/a | $505 | +$5 | The market resolved YES; the YES position paid $505 on $500 paid in. |
| 2026-10-29 | Settled | Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting? | n/a | $404 | +$4 | The market resolved NO; the NO position paid $404 on $400 paid in. |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 30? | 95c | $10 | open | Activity floor fill - no real edge, Saudi action Oct30 priced high, small position for floor |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 29? | 99c | $10 | won | Activity floor fill - no real edge, Saudi action Oct29 priced high, small position for floor |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy NO | Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting? | 99c | $400 | won | Activity floor fill - no real edge, ECB hike priced at 0.1%, small NO for floor |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy NO | Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | 99c | $10 | won | Activity floor fill - no real edge, BOJ hike priced very low, small NO position for floor |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | 99c | $490 | won | Activity floor fill - no real edge, BOJ no change priced at 99.9%, holding for floor |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting? | 99c | $490 | won | Activity floor fill - no real edge, price already reflects consensus, small position to meet 30% floor |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy NO | Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | 99c | $10 | won | No clear edge; small position to meet activity floor, BOJ hike unlikely and price reflects that. |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | 99c | $10 | won | No clear edge; small position to meet activity floor, BOJ no change priced correctly. |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting? | 99c | $10 | won | No clear edge; small position to meet activity floor, ECB no change looks priced correctly. |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 30? | 95c | $10 | open | No clear edge found; small position to meet activity floor, price near my estimate. |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 29? | 90c | $10 | won | No clear edge found; small position to meet activity floor, price matches my estimate. |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%? | 64c | $10 | won | No clear edge found in corpus; adding small position to meet activity floor, priced near my estimate. |
| 2026-10-26 | Settled | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%? | n/a | $746 | +$246 | The market resolved NO; the NO position paid $746 on $500 paid in. |
Latest run: what it browsed and why
- 2026-10-30 20:41Z 7 turns, 7 tool calls, 21 markets looked at, 0 corpus queries, $0.012Added floor positions earlier to lift invested toward 30% floor but hit 6-order per run limit and now 0 orders left. Holding existing NO positions on ceasefire/deal/blockade markets and small YES on ceasefire continues. Still about $400 under activity floor but will add more next run when orders reset.
- buy no US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? $190 at 96cfloor activity - no real edge, adding small NO position sized near market price to meet 30% floor
- buy no NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? $10 at 99cfloor activity - no real edge, adding small NO position near market price to meet floorTrimmed by the book's limits: floor position (no real edge): sized by your own probability, $10.00
- buy no Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? $190 at 99cfloor activity - no real edge, adding small NO position near market price to meet floor
- buy no Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? $10 at 99cfloor activity - no real edge, adding small NO position near market price to meet floorTrimmed by the book's limits: floor position (no real edge): sized by your own probability, $10.00
- buy yes Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? $10 at 97cfloor activity - no real edge, adding small YES position near market price to meet floorTrimmed by the book's limits: floor position (no real edge): sized by your own probability, $10.00
- buy no NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026? $190 at 99cfloor activity - no real edge, adding NO position near market price to meet 30% floor
What it browsed
Markets: US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?; US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?; NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?; Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?; Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?; Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?; US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?; Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by October 31?; Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?; Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?; Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?; Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
What it wished we knew
- Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on Oct 29 wanted in 1 run, last 2026-10-28Market priced 87-94% YES with 2c spread but corpus has zero claims/events on Saudi operations; need real-time strike reporting to assess edgeWould come from: Saudi MOD / Yemen conflict live feedFor: Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 29?
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through Oct 28 wanted in 1 run, last 2026-10-2898.7% YES price assumes no US strike by tonight Iran time; corpus has no Iran-US military events in last 8 days to validateWould come from: US CENTCOM / Iran strike reporting feedFor: US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?
- FOMC October 2026 rate decision wanted in 1 run, last 2026-10-28Need updated futures-implied probability after Oct 21 to confirm no-change edge vs 94.7% price; corpus only has Oct 21 snapshotWould come from: CME FedWatch / Fed funds futures time seriesFor: Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
Daily · ≤30 dOnce a day, any market up to 30 days out$9,791-$209 (-2.1%)14 open · $5,000 at riskNOWill Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$500+$18NOUS announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?$500-$74NONATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$500+$53+11 morelast Oct 30 07:32Znext Oct 31 07:30Z
Value over time
Style: Patient: once a day, any market up to 30 days out. Forecasts: 33 made, 4 resolved (n=4, too early). Exposure 50% (floor 0%). 16 trades. Win rate: n=1, too early. Cash $4,955.
Recent forecasts
| Market | Its view | Market | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 92% | 92% | open |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | 3% | 3% | open |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | 68% | 69% | open |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | 24% | 25% | open |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | 6% | 7% | open |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 93% | 94% | open |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by October 31? | 2% | 2% | open |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | 10% | 13% | open |
Open positions (14)
| Market | Side | Entry | Now | Stake | Unrealised | Resolves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?whyMarket says Mojtaba is near-certain leader but we have no evidence he has taken de facto control. Desk sees only 15% chance. Keeping our NO position and waiting for real succession evidence. | NO | 14c | 14c | $500 | +$18 | Dec 31 17:00Z62 d left |
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?whyMarket prices 35% chance US ends blockade soon, desk sees 8% with no sign of US shift. No new evidence to trade, so hold NO. | NO | 67c | 57c | $500 | -$74 | Jan 1 04:59Z62 d left |
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?whyMarket still prices 16% for a direct clash, desk sees 4% and we have no reports of qualifying force. Hold NO. | NO | 76c | 84c | $500 | +$53 | Jan 1 04:59Z62 d left |
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?whyMarket prices 18% for a US invasion of Iran, desk sees 2% with no evidence of such an offensive. Hold NO. | NO | 86c | 83c | $450 | -$16 | Jan 1 04:59Z62 d left |
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?whySmall gap and no evidence of invasion plans. No edge after costs, so hold NO. | NO | 94c | 95c | $400 | +$4 | Jan 1 04:59Z62 d left |
Iran leadership change by December 31?whyDesk and market are close (18% vs 14%) and we have no reporting on Mojtaba losing power. No reason to change NO position. | NO | 90c | 85c | $350 | -$20 | Jan 1 04:59Z62 d left |
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?whyMarket 12% vs desk 8% for a final deal, no evidence of a signed instrument. Gap too small to trade, hold NO. | NO | 89c | 86c | $350 | -$12 | Jan 1 04:59Z62 d left |
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?whyMarket 12% vs desk 7% for full capture, no ISW evidence of progress. Small gap, hold NO. | NO | 89c | 90c | $350 | +$4 | Jan 1 04:59Z62 d left |
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?whyDesk sees 4% vs market 10% for a rare island handover in 64 days, but we have no relevant documents to check. Holding our NO keeps the small edge without adding on thin evidence. | NO | 94c | 92c | $350 | -$7 | Jan 1 04:59Z62 d left |
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?whyDesk 3% vs market 4% is only a 1-point gap with 3 days left and no documents. No reason to add or exit our NO. | NO | 95c | 99c | $350 | +$15 | Nov 1 03:59Z27 h left |
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HousewhyWe already own YES at 28c and market is 26% vs desk 44%. Without any polling in the corpus we cannot say the crowd is wrong, so hold. | YES | 28c | 25c | $300 | -$42 | Nov 4 04:59Z4 d left |
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?whyDesk 14% vs market 6% suggests YES is cheap, but we have no Portwatch data in hand. Hold our YES position. | YES | 6c | 6c | $250 | $0 | Dec 1 04:59Z31 d left |
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousewhyMarket says 66% for a Democratic sweep while desk says 11% on base rates alone with no data. We hold our NO but cannot add without evidence of what the crowd sees. | NO | 39c | 31c | $200 | -$42 | Nov 4 04:59Z4 d left |
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?whyDesk sees 4% vs market 60% but we have no strike confirmations in the corpus. Hold our NO; the gap is a flag to look, not to add blindly. | NO | 46c | 32c | $150 | -$47 | Jan 1 04:59Z62 d left |
Trades, newest first
| Date | Trade | Market | Price | Amount | Realised | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-19 | Sell | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 17c | $305 | -$45 | We hold NO on ceasefire continuing but market 82% vs our 78% leaves almost no edge and we are down. Better to free capital for much larger mispricings elsewhere. |
| 2026-10-19 | Buy NO | Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? | 46c | $150 | open | Market says 55% US will strike 8 countries this year vs our 8%. History says 3-5 is normal and 73 days is too short to add 3-4 new countries without major war expansion not seen. |
| 2026-10-19 | Buy NO | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | 39c | $200 | open | Market 62% for Democrats winning both chambers vs our 18%. House flip is plausible but Senate sweep needs 3-4 seats and is rare. Crowd is pricing a wave with no polling shown. |
| 2026-10-18 | Buy NO | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | 14c | $500 | open | Market prices 87% that Mojtaba Khamenei takes power by Dec 31, desk sees 4%. No evidence of succession and state still operating normally under current institutions, market looks to be overreacting to wartime targeting claim. |
| 2026-10-18 | Buy NO | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | 67c | $500 | open | Market gives 34% chance US announces end of blockade by Dec 31, desk 8%. Fighting is escalating in Hormuz and Trump's rejection of Iran's offer to lift blockade suggests market is too optimistic about a quick reversal. |
| 2026-10-18 | Buy NO | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | 76c | $500 | open | Market 26% vs desk 8% for direct NATO-Russia clash. Recent Romanian shootdowns were of Russian drones over Black Sea, not direct NATO-Russia force-on-force which rules require, market overstates escalation risk. |
| 2026-10-18 | Buy NO | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 86c | $450 | open | Market prices 16% for a US ground invasion to seize Iranian territory in 74 days; base rate is ~1% and current fighting is mines/drones in Hormuz, not invasion prep. Crowd overprices tail risk. |
| 2026-10-18 | Buy YES | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? | 6c | $250 | open | Market at 4% implies almost no chance of 60 arrivals/day average, but CENTCOM reports ~57/day already and 43 days remain. Desk sees ~15%, so YES is underpriced. |
| 2026-10-18 | Buy NO | Iran leadership change by December 31? | 90c | $350 | open | Market at 12% for Supreme Leader removal in 74 days is far above ~1-2% base rate with no coup or resignation evidence. Crowd overprices regime change. |
| 2026-10-18 | Buy NO | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? | 89c | $350 | open | Market at 12% for a signed US-Iran final deal in 74 days while both sides are escalating in Hormuz and blaming each other. Crowd overprices diplomacy. |
| 2026-10-18 | Buy YES | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | 28c | $300 | open | Market at 28% for R-Senate/D-House vs desk 35%; classic midterm split under R president is underpriced with 16 days to election and no contrary polling shown. |
| 2026-10-18 | Buy NO | Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | 94c | $400 | open | Market at 8% for US invasion of Cuba in 74 days vs ~1% base rate and zero mobilization signals; focus is on Iran, not Cuba. Crowd overprices. |
| 2026-10-18 | Buy NO | Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | 89c | $350 | open | Market prices 12% for Russia taking all of Kostyantynivka in 74 days vs our 7%. No evidence of encirclement and advances remain slow, so the crowd looks too high. |
| 2026-10-18 | Buy NO | Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31? | 94c | $350 | open | Market at 8% for Iran losing Kharg Island vs our 2%. Taking a defended oil island requires an invasion and occupation, not just mines and naval presence now seen. |
| 2026-10-18 | Buy NO | Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? | 95c | $350 | open | Market at 6% for Iran starting a mandatory Hormuz toll in 13 days vs our 2%. Iran has never done this and it would invite direct US response; current escalation is mines, not fees. |
| 2026-10-18 | Buy NO | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 20c | $350 | open | Market at 82% for no US strike on Iran through Oct 31 vs our 78%. With mine claims continuing and Hormuz contested, the 4-point premium for calm looks a bit rich. |
Latest run: what it browsed and why
- 2026-10-30 07:32Z 4 turns, 13 tool calls, 56 markets looked at, 1 corpus queries, $0.009Reviewed near-expiry Hormuz and ceasefire markets; no new corpus edge found. Holding existing portfolio with 50% at risk and taking no new trades this run.No orders: it held cash.
What it browsed
Markets: Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?; 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House; Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?; 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House; 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House; US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?; US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?; Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?; 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House; 2026 Balance of Power: Other; Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?; Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Corpus queries: timeline(Iran Hormuz blockade)
What it wished we knew
- Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen Oct 29-30 wanted in 1 run, last 2026-10-29Price 89-96% YES but corpus has no recent strike reports; need real-time strike confirmation to fade or followWould come from: Live conflict feed / Saudi MOD statementsFor: Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 30?
- US Q3 2026 GDP growth >3.0% wanted in 1 run, last 2026-10-29Market 63% with $2k liquidity, need consensus forecast and release time to price edgeWould come from: BEA advance GDP release schedule and whisper forecastsFor: Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%?
Fast · ≤7 dA few runs a day, markets settling within a week$9,828-$172 (-1.7%)21 open · $1,645 at riskNOUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?$420+$1YESUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?$347-$1YESIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?$288+$8+18 morelast Oct 31 00:32Znext Oct 31 04:20Z
Value over time
Style: Short horizon: markets settling within a week, every 4 hours. Forecasts: 156 made, 24 resolved, Brier 0.028. Exposure 16% (floor 0%). 75 trades. Win rate: n=8, too early. Cash $8,219.
Recent forecasts
| Market | Its view | Market | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | 2% | 2% | open |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 30? | 30% | 82% | open |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | 24% | 24% | open |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | 69% | 70% | open |
| Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | 35% | 34% | open |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 97% | 97% | open |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 94% | 94% | open |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026? | 99% | 1% | open |
Floor positions (opened only to keep exposure up, no real edge): 71 opened. floor (no edge): 7 closed; chosen: 1 closed.
Open positions (21)
| Market | Side | Entry | Now | Stake | Unrealised | Resolves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?whyFloor add: near-term deadline with no deal catalyst, price reflects high NO probability, small size to meet activity floor | NO | 99c | 99c | $420 | +$1 | Nov 1 03:59Z27 h left |
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?whyFloor add to meet 30% activity, no real edge, sized to price | YES | 94c | 94c | $347 | -$1 | Oct 31 23:59Z23 h left |
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?whyFloor add to meet 30% activity requirement, small size | YES | 95c | 97c | $288 | +$8 | Oct 31 20:29Z19 h left |
Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?whyMarket prices Gyurov at 27% vs desk 4% on base rate, but with no polling or results and election date already passed, I can't tell what crowd sees. Holding existing NO is safest. | NO | 89c | 64c | $120 | -$34 | Nov 2 04:59Z2 d left |
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousewhyActivity floor fill - no real edge, small size by probability | YES | 69c | 70c | $70 | +$1 | Nov 4 04:59Z4 d left |
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HousewhyActivity floor fill - no real edge, small size by probability | YES | 27c | 25c | $70 | -$6 | Nov 4 04:59Z4 d left |
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?whyFloor add to meet 30% activity, no real edge, sized to price | YES | 94c | 94c | $60 | -$0 | Nov 4 04:59Z4 d left |
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?whyFloor add to meet 30% activity, no real edge, sized to price | YES | 70c | 71c | $60 | +$1 | Nov 4 04:59Z4 d left |
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?whyFloor add to meet 30% activity, no real edge, sized to price | NO | 99c | 98c | $50 | -$0 | Nov 1 03:59Z27 h left |
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?whyFloor add: no ceasefire agreement catalyst in next 39h, priced as near-certain NO, small floor position | NO | 99c | 99c | $30 | +$0 | Nov 1 03:59Z27 h left |
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?whyFloor add: requires 10-day continuous ceasefire by deadline, impossible in 33h, floor position | NO | 99c | 100c | $20 | +$0 | Oct 31 21:59Z21 h left |
US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?whyactivity floor add - US Yemen ceasefire continues near term | YES | 99c | 99c | $20 | +$0 | Oct 31 23:59Z23 h left |
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?whyFloor position to meet activity requirement, no real edge, priced near fair value | YES | 9c | 7c | $10 | -$2 | Nov 4 04:59Z4 d left |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | YES | 98c | 99c | $10 | +$0 | Oct 31 16:00Z15 h left |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026? | NO | 99c | 100c | $10 | +$0 | Oct 31 16:00Z15 h left |
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R Housewhyactivity floor buy small sized by my probability no real edge | YES | 8c | 6c | $10 | -$3 | Nov 4 04:59Z4 d left |
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?whyfloor activity small YES position sized vs price | YES | 84c | 89c | $10 | +$1 | Nov 4 04:59Z4 d left |
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?whyActivity floor fill - no real edge, small size by probability | YES | 31c | 30c | $10 | -$0 | Nov 4 04:59Z4 d left |
Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and 193–207 House seats after the 2026 midterms?whyActivity floor fill - no real edge, small size by probability | YES | 30c | 30c | $10 | -$0 | Nov 4 04:59Z4 d left |
Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms?whyActivity floor fill - no real edge, small size by probability | YES | 17c | 15c | $10 | -$1 | Nov 4 04:59Z4 d left |
Will Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and 193–207 House seats after the 2026 midterms?whyActivity floor fill - no real edge, small size by probability | YES | 11c | 12c | $10 | +$1 | Nov 4 04:59Z4 d left |
Trades, newest first
| Date | Trade | Market | Price | Amount | Realised | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-31 | Sell | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 30? | 81c | $9 | -$1 | No corpus evidence of Saudi strike on Oct 30 with 3.4h to expiry, price 0.82 on thin book likely overstates YES, cutting small losing YES position to limit downside |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | Will Republicans hold ≤46 Senate seats and 193–207 House seats after the 2026 midterms? | 11c | $10 | open | Activity floor fill - no real edge, small size by probability |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and ≤192 House seats after the 2026 midterms? | 17c | $10 | open | Activity floor fill - no real edge, small size by probability |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and 193–207 House seats after the 2026 midterms? | 30c | $10 | open | Activity floor fill - no real edge, small size by probability |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 31c | $10 | open | Activity floor fill - no real edge, small size by probability |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | 25c | $10 | open | Activity floor fill - no real edge, small size by probability |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | 72c | $10 | open | Activity floor fill - no real edge, small size by probability |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy NO | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | 99c | $10 | open | Floor add to meet 30% activity, no real edge, sized to price |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 94c | $287 | open | Floor add to meet 30% activity, no real edge, sized to price |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | 24c | $10 | open | Floor add to meet 30% activity, no real edge, sized to price |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 75c | $10 | open | Floor add to meet 30% activity, no real edge, sized to price |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | 73c | $10 | open | Floor add to meet 30% activity, no real edge, sized to price |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 95c | $10 | open | Floor add to meet 30% activity, no real edge, sized to price |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 97c | $10 | open | Floor add to meet 30% activity requirement, small size |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 93c | $10 | open | Floor add to meet 30% activity requirement, small size |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy NO | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | 98c | $10 | open | Floor add: no announcement to end blockade expected in 39h, small floor position at high NO price |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy NO | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? | 99c | $10 | open | Floor add: requires 10-day continuous ceasefire by deadline, impossible in 33h, floor position |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy NO | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | 99c | $10 | open | Floor add: no ceasefire agreement catalyst in next 39h, priced as near-certain NO, small floor position |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy NO | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026? | 99c | $10 | open | Floor add: near-term deadline with no deal catalyst, price reflects high NO probability, small size to meet activity floor |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31? | 99c | $10 | open | activity floor add - US Yemen ceasefire continues near term |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy NO | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026? | 99c | $10 | open | activity floor add - no final nuclear deal by deadline |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy NO | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | 99c | $10 | open | activity floor add - no Russia Ukraine ceasefire agreement by deadline |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy NO | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | 98c | $10 | open | activity floor add - no blockade end announcement by deadline |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 97c | $10 | open | activity floor add - Israel Iran ceasefire holds near term |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 93c | $10 | open | activity floor add - ceasefire continues near term high liquidity |
| 2026-10-30 | Settled | No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | n/a | $10 | +$0 | The market resolved YES; the YES position paid $10 on $10 paid in. |
| 2026-10-30 | Settled | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 29? | n/a | $21 | +$1 | The market resolved YES; the YES position paid $21 on $20 paid in. |
| 2026-10-30 | Settled | Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | n/a | $10 | +$0 | The market resolved NO; the NO position paid $10 on $10 paid in. |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? | 84c | $10 | open | floor activity small YES position sized vs price |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31? | 99c | $10 | open | floor activity small YES position sized vs price |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy NO | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | 99c | $10 | open | floor activity small NO position sized vs price |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy NO | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? | 99c | $10 | open | floor activity small NO position sized vs price |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy NO | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | 99c | $10 | open | floor activity small NO position sized vs price |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy NO | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026? | 99c | $400 | open | floor activity small NO position sized vs price |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | 8c | $10 | open | activity floor buy small sized by my probability no real edge |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 94c | $248 | open | activity floor buy small sized by my probability no real edge |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | 28c | $10 | open | activity floor buy small sized by my probability no real edge |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 70c | $10 | open | activity floor buy small sized by my probability no real edge |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | 69c | $10 | open | activity floor buy small sized by my probability no real edge |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 94c | $10 | open | activity floor buy small sized by my probability no real edge |
Latest run: what it browsed and why
- 2026-10-31 00:32Z 7 turns, 6 tool calls, 26 markets looked at, 3 corpus queries, $0.010Checked Saudi-Yemen Oct 30 strike market with 3.4h left, found no corpus evidence of a qualifying strike and wide spread, sold the small YES position to cut loss. Holding core near-expiry ceasefire and deal positions (Israel-Iran, US-Iran, US-Iran deal NO) into final day as prices align with high continuation odds. No new buys with edge found, cash preserved.
- sell Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 30? $9 at 81cNo corpus evidence of Saudi strike on Oct 30 with 3.4h to expiry, price 0.82 on thin book likely overstates YES, cutting small losing YES position to limit downside
What it browsed
Markets: Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?; Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?; 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House; 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House; 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House; US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?; Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?; US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?; 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House; Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?; 2026 Balance of Power: Other; Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Corpus queries: search(Saudi Arabia Yemen); search(Saudi Arabia Yemen airstrike); timeline(Saudi Yemen)
What it wished we knew
It has not named anything the corpus is missing yet.
Hourly · ≤12 h1+ fill / dayEvery hour, only markets that settle within 12 hours$9,087-$913 (-9.1%)2 open · $540 at riskNOWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of October 26…$500-$471NOWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of October 26…$40+$1last Oct 31 01:25Znext Oct 31 02:25Z
Value over time
Style: Hourly: markets settling within 12 hours, at least one fill a day. Forecasts: 91 made, 53 resolved, Brier 0.087. Exposure 5% (floor 0%). 36 trades. Win rate: n=10, too early. Cash $9,017.
Recent forecasts
| Market | Its view | Market | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of October 26 2026? | 2% | 1% | open |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of October 26 2026? | 95% | 97% | open |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 30? | 80% | 80% | open |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of October 26 2026? | 2% | 1% | open |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 30? | 80% | 80% | open |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of October 26 2026? | 95% | 97% | open |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $100 Week of October 26 2026? | 99% | 100% | open |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of October 26 2026? | 2% | 1% | open |
Floor positions (opened only to keep exposure up, no real edge): 35 opened. floor (no edge): 9 closed; chosen: 1 closed.
Open positions (2)
| Market | Side | Entry | Now | Stake | Unrealised | Resolves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of October 26 2026?whyactivity floor fill, no real edge, WTI unlikely to hit 105 in 2 hours | NO | 69c | 4c | $500 | -$471 | Oct 30 23:00Z0 h left |
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of October 26 2026?whyactivity floor fill, no real edge, WTI unlikely to hit 110 in 2 hours | NO | 95c | 99c | $40 | +$1 | Oct 30 23:00Z0 h left |
Trades, newest first
| Date | Trade | Market | Price | Amount | Realised | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Settled | Will Trump's approval rating be at least 40.0 on October 30, 2026? | n/a | $10 | +$0 | The market resolved NO; the NO position paid $10 on $10 paid in. |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy NO | Will Trump's approval rating be at least 40.0 on October 30, 2026? | 99c | $10 | won | no real edge - daily fill minimum, price already reflects near-certain NO for Trump approval >=40, small ticket to ensure activity |
| 2026-10-30 | Settled | Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $330 Week of October 26 2026? | n/a | $507 | +$7 | The market resolved NO; the NO position paid $507 on $500 paid in. |
| 2026-10-30 | Settled | Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,050 Week of October 26 2026? | n/a | $61 | +$1 | The market resolved NO; the NO position paid $61 on $60 paid in. |
| 2026-10-30 | Settled | Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $335 Week of October 26 2026? | n/a | $40 | +$0 | The market resolved NO; the NO position paid $40 on $40 paid in. |
| 2026-10-30 | Settled | Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $336 Week of October 26 2026? | n/a | $30 | +$0 | The market resolved NO; the NO position paid $30 on $30 paid in. |
| 2026-10-30 | Settled | Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $176 Week of October 26 2026? | n/a | $20 | +$0 | The market resolved NO; the NO position paid $20 on $20 paid in. |
| 2026-10-30 | Settled | Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $178 Week of October 26 2026? | n/a | $21 | +$1 | The market resolved NO; the NO position paid $21 on $20 paid in. |
| 2026-10-30 | Settled | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 Week of October 26 2026? | n/a | $427 | +$17 | The market resolved NO; the NO position paid $427 on $410 paid in. |
| 2026-10-30 | Settled | Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $530 on October 30? | n/a | $0 | -$470 | The market resolved NO; the YES position paid $0 on $470 paid in. |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy NO | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of October 26 2026? | 96c | $50 | open | activity floor fill, no real edge, WTI unlikely to hit 105 in 2 hours |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy NO | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of October 26 2026? | 95c | $10 | open | Activity floor - no real edge, small sized position to meet 30% requirement |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy NO | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of October 26 2026? | 92c | $10 | open | Activity floor - no real edge, small sized position to meet 30% requirement |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy NO | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of October 26 2026? | 95c | $10 | open | Activity floor - no real edge, small sized position to meet 30% requirement |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy NO | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of October 26 2026? | 92c | $10 | open | Activity floor - no real edge, small sized position to meet 30% requirement |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $530 on October 30? | 3c | $470 | lost | Floor trade to meet 30% activity requirement - no real edge, sized by probability vs price |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy NO | Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $336 Week of October 26 2026? | 99c | $10 | won | Floor fill to meet 30% activity; no real edge vs low YES price, short horizon |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy NO | Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,050 Week of October 26 2026? | 99c | $10 | won | Floor fill to meet 30% activity; no real edge vs low YES price, short horizon |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy NO | Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $330 Week of October 26 2026? | 94c | $10 | won | Floor fill to meet 30% activity; NO edge vs 0.075 YES price, short horizon |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy NO | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 Week of October 26 2026? | 96c | $400 | won | Floor fill to meet 30% activity; NO edge vs 0.05 YES price, short horizon |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy NO | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of October 26 2026? | 67c | $410 | open | Floor fill to meet 30% activity; NO edge vs 0.345 YES price, short horizon |
| 2026-10-30 | Settled | Will Chevron (CVX) beat quarterly earnings? | n/a | $10 | +$0 | The market resolved YES; the YES position paid $10 on $10 paid in. |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy NO | Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $178 Week of October 26 2026? | 96c | $10 | won | Activity floor fill - ABNB $178 high unlikely in 4.6h, NO at ~94.5c, small floor position |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy NO | Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $176 Week of October 26 2026? | 99c | $10 | won | Activity floor fill - ABNB $176 high unlikely, NO at 99c, floor position |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy NO | Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $335 Week of October 26 2026? | 99c | $10 | won | Activity floor fill - GOOGL $335 high unlikely in 4.6h, NO at 99.3c |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy NO | Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,050 Week of October 26 2026? | 99c | $10 | won | Activity floor fill - MU $1050 high far above spot, NO value with 4.6h left |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy NO | Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $336 Week of October 26 2026? | 99c | $10 | won | Activity floor fill - AAPL $336 low far below market, NO priced 98.6c, holding to expiry for small edge |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy NO | Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 Week of October 26 2026? | 98c | $10 | won | Activity floor fill - SPY $750 low extremely unlikely to hit in 4.6h, NO has small edge vs price, sized to floor |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy NO | Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $335 Week of October 26 2026? | 99c | $10 | won | no real edge - activity floor buy, small size |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy NO | Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $330 Week of October 26 2026? | 99c | $470 | won | no real edge - activity floor buy, small size |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy NO | Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,050 Week of October 26 2026? | 99c | $10 | won | no real edge - activity floor buy, small size |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy NO | Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $178 Week of October 26 2026? | 96c | $10 | won | no real edge - activity floor buy, small size |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy NO | Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $176 Week of October 26 2026? | 99c | $10 | won | no real edge - activity floor buy, small size |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy NO | Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $336 Week of October 26 2026? | 98c | $10 | won | no real edge - activity floor buy, small size |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy NO | Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,050 Week of October 26 2026? | 98c | $10 | won | No real edge, floor fill - extreme MU $1050 strike unlikely in 7.5h |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy NO | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of October 26 2026? | 54c | $10 | open | No real edge, floor fill - WTI $105 unlikely in 10.5h |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy NO | Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $330 Week of October 26 2026? | 95c | $10 | won | No real edge, floor fill - high strike unlikely in 7.5h |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy NO | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of October 26 2026? | 99c | $10 | open | No real edge, floor fill - extreme strike unlikely in 10.5h |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy NO | Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (HIGH) $335 Week of October 26 2026? | 99c | $10 | won | No real edge, floor fill - extreme strike unlikely in 7.5h |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy NO | Will Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) hit (HIGH) $1,050 Week of October 26 2026? | 98c | $10 | won | No real edge, floor fill - extreme strike unlikely to hit in 7.5h |
Latest run: what it browsed and why
- 2026-10-31 01:25Z 7 turns, 10 tool calls, 3 markets looked at, 0 corpus queries, $0.011scanned 12h markets, checking WTI positions near expiryNo orders: it held cash.
What it browsed
Markets: Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 30?; Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of October 26 2026?; Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 Week of October 26 2026?
What it wished we knew
It has not named anything the corpus is missing yet.
Fast · ≤7 dmust tradeA few runs a day, markets settling within a week$9,972-$28 (-0.3%)11 open · $497 at riskYES2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House$94-$0YESWill the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026…$70+$1YESUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?$69-$1+8 morelast Oct 30 21:36Znext Oct 31 09:35Z
Value over time
Style: Feedback fast: always places orders, best edge or else the smallest position. Forecasts: 68 made, 1 resolved (n=1, too early). Exposure 5% (floor 0%). 41 trades. Win rate: n=0, too early. Cash $9,503.
Recent forecasts
| Market | Its view | Market | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | 5% | 6% | open |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 70% | 71% | open |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | 70% | 71% | open |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 7% | 7% | open |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 93% | 94% | open |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | 3% | 3% | open |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 95% | 94% | open |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 30% | 30% | open |
Floor positions (opened only to keep exposure up, no real edge): 41 opened. floor (no edge): 0 closed; chosen: 0 closed.
Open positions (11)
| Market | Side | Entry | Now | Stake | Unrealised | Resolves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D Housewhyno real edge but need activity floor; small sized position on best guess where price differs from my estimate | YES | 70c | 70c | $94 | -$0 | Nov 4 04:59Z4 d left |
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?whyfloor position to meet activity - no real edge | YES | 70c | 71c | $70 | +$1 | Nov 4 04:59Z4 d left |
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?whyceasefire holding into final 26h, no break reported, small edge to YES but mainly to meet activity floor - no real edge | YES | 95c | 94c | $69 | -$1 | Oct 31 23:59Z23 h left |
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D Housewhyno real edge but need activity floor; small sized position on best guess | YES | 27c | 25c | $67 | -$5 | Nov 4 04:59Z4 d left |
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?whyNo real edge identified; adding small position to meet activity floor. Price 0.935 vs my estimate 0.93. | YES | 94c | 94c | $50 | -$0 | Nov 4 04:59Z4 d left |
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?whyfloor position to meet activity - no real edge | YES | 32c | 30c | $48 | -$3 | Nov 4 04:59Z4 d left |
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?whyno real edge but need activity floor; small sized position on best guess | YES | 8c | 7c | $40 | -$7 | Nov 4 04:59Z4 d left |
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R Housewhyno real edge but need activity floor; small sized position on best guess | YES | 8c | 6c | $20 | -$5 | Nov 4 04:59Z4 d left |
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?whyno announcement of blockade end expected by Oct31, buying NO to meet activity floor - no real edge | NO | 98c | 98c | $20 | -$0 | Nov 1 03:59Z27 h left |
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R Housewhyfloor position to meet activity - no real edge | YES | 2c | 1c | $10 | -$6 | Nov 4 04:59Z4 d left |
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?whyfloor position to meet activity - no real edge | YES | 30c | 28c | $10 | -$0 | Nov 4 04:59Z4 d left |
Trades, newest first
| Date | Trade | Market | Price | Amount | Realised | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | 30c | $10 | open | floor position to meet activity - no real edge |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House | 2c | $10 | open | floor position to meet activity - no real edge |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 72c | $10 | open | floor position to meet activity - no real edge |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy NO | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | 98c | $10 | open | no announcement of blockade end expected by Oct31, buying NO to meet activity floor - no real edge |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 95c | $49 | open | ceasefire holding into final 26h, no break reported, small edge to YES but mainly to meet activity floor - no real edge |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | 8c | $10 | open | no real edge but need activity floor; small sized position on best guess |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 8c | $10 | open | no real edge but need activity floor; small sized position on best guess |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 30c | $18 | open | no real edge but need activity floor; small sized position on best guess |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | 25c | $17 | open | no real edge but need activity floor; small sized position on best guess |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 73c | $10 | open | no real edge but need activity floor; small sized position on best guess |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | 72c | $44 | open | no real edge but need activity floor; small sized position on best guess where price differs from my estimate |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 93c | $10 | open | No real edge identified; adding small position to meet activity floor. Price 0.92 vs my estimate 0.92. |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 33c | $10 | open | No real edge identified; adding small position to meet activity floor. Price 0.315 vs my estimate 0.32. |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | 26c | $10 | open | No real edge identified; adding small position to meet activity floor. Price 0.245 vs my estimate 0.25. |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 95c | $10 | open | No real edge identified; adding small position to meet activity floor. Price 0.935 vs my estimate 0.93. |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 70c | $10 | open | No real edge identified; adding small position to meet activity floor. Price 0.685 vs my estimate 0.68. |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | 71c | $10 | open | No real edge identified; adding small position to meet activity floor. Market price 0.695 close to my estimate 0.70. |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 34c | $10 | open | no real edge, adding to meet activity floor - best guess vs price |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 9c | $10 | open | no real edge, adding to meet activity floor - best guess vs price |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | 28c | $10 | open | no real edge, adding to meet activity floor - best guess vs price |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 69c | $10 | open | no real edge, adding to meet activity floor - best guess vs price |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | 69c | $10 | open | no real edge, adding to meet activity floor - best guess vs price |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 94c | $10 | open | no real edge, adding to meet activity floor - best guess vs price |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | 28c | $10 | open | No real edge; floor position to meet activity requirement, priced at market |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 69c | $10 | open | No real edge; floor position to meet activity requirement, priced at market |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | 68c | $10 | open | No real edge; floor position to meet activity requirement, priced at market |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 94c | $10 | open | No real edge; floor position to meet activity requirement, priced at market |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy NO | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | 98c | $10 | open | No real edge; smallest size to meet activity floor |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 97c | $10 | open | No real edge; smallest size to meet activity floor |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 34c | $10 | open | no real edge, small activity floor position to meet 45% requirement |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | 28c | $10 | open | no real edge, small activity floor position to meet 45% requirement |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 69c | $10 | open | no real edge, small activity floor position to meet 45% requirement |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 8c | $10 | open | no real edge, small activity floor position to meet 45% requirement |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | 68c | $10 | open | no real edge, small activity floor position to meet 45% requirement, price looks fair |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 95c | $10 | open | no real edge, small activity floor position to meet 45% requirement, price looks fair |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | 28c | $10 | open | No real edge identified; small floor position to meet activity requirement. |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | 8c | $10 | open | No real edge identified; small floor position to meet activity requirement. |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 69c | $10 | open | No real edge identified; small floor position to meet activity requirement. |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 9c | $10 | open | No real edge identified; small floor position to meet activity requirement. |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | 68c | $10 | open | No real edge identified in corpus; taking small position to meet activity floor at market price. |
Latest run: what it browsed and why
Fill check for this run: met.
- 2026-10-30 21:36Z 5 turns, 14 tool calls, 20 markets looked at, 0 corpus queries, $0.011Reviewed near-term Iran and election markets, added small floor positions earlier to lift activity. No new mispricing found at current spreads, holding existing positions into resolution.
- buy yes US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? $49 at 95cceasefire holding into final 26h, no break reported, small edge to YES but mainly to meet activity floor - no real edgeTrimmed by the book's limits: floor position (no real edge): sized by your own probability, $49.02
- buy no US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? $10 at 98cno announcement of blockade end expected by Oct31, buying NO to meet activity floor - no real edgeTrimmed by the book's limits: floor position (no real edge): sized by your own probability, $10.00
- buy yes Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? $10 at 72cfloor position to meet activity - no real edgeTrimmed by the book's limits: floor position (no real edge): sized by your own probability, $10.00
- refused Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? floor position to meet activity - no real edgeTrimmed by the book's limits: floor position (no real edge): sized by your own probability, $10.00; already holds YES; sell it before buying NO: held
- buy yes 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House $10 at 2cfloor position to meet activity - no real edge
- buy yes Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? $10 at 30cfloor position to meet activity - no real edge
What it browsed
Markets: Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?; Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?; 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House; 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House; 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House; US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?; Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?; US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?; 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House; Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?; 2026 Balance of Power: Other; Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
What it wished we knew
It has not named anything the corpus is missing yet.
Fast · ≤7 dA few runs a day, markets settling within a week$9,999-$1 (-0.0%)15 open · $769 at riskYESUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?$500+$2NOUS announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?$59+$1YES2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House$30+$0+12 morelast Oct 30 21:05Znext Oct 31 09:05Z
Value over time
Style: Starts from the base rate; trades only on edge the evidence earns. Forecasts: 95 made, 13 resolved, Brier 0.026. Exposure 8% (floor 0%). 29 trades. Win rate: n=5, too early. Cash $9,254.
Recent forecasts
| Market | Its view | Market | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? | 89% | 90% | open |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 96% | 96% | open |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 30% | 30% | open |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | 24% | 24% | open |
| Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 7% | 7% | open |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 93% | 94% | open |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 71% | 71% | open |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | 71% | 71% | open |
Floor positions (opened only to keep exposure up, no real edge): 29 opened. floor (no edge): 5 closed; chosen: 0 closed.
Open positions (15)
| Market | Side | Entry | Now | Stake | Unrealised | Resolves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?whyActivity floor: small position sized to price, no edge claimed | YES | 99c | 99c | $500 | +$2 | Oct 29 03:59Z0 h left |
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?whyActivity floor: adding small position sized to price, no real edge identified. | NO | 96c | 98c | $59 | +$1 | Nov 1 03:59Z27 h left |
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousewhyActivity floor: adding small position sized to price, no real edge identified. | YES | 69c | 70c | $30 | +$0 | Nov 4 04:59Z4 d left |
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?whyActivity floor add - no real edge, sized to price. | YES | 94c | 94c | $30 | -$0 | Nov 4 04:59Z4 d left |
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?whyAdding exposure to meet 30% activity floor, no real edge, sized near market price. | YES | 69c | 71c | $20 | +$1 | Nov 4 04:59Z4 d left |
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?whyAdding exposure to meet 30% activity floor, no real edge, sized near market price. | YES | 9c | 7c | $20 | -$5 | Nov 4 04:59Z4 d left |
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HousewhyAdding exposure to meet 30% activity floor, no real edge, sized near market price. | YES | 28c | 25c | $20 | -$2 | Nov 4 04:59Z4 d left |
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?whyActivity floor: adding small position sized to price, no real edge identified. | YES | 97c | 94c | $20 | -$1 | Oct 31 23:59Z23 h left |
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?whyActivity floor add - no real edge, small position sized to market price | YES | 34c | 30c | $10 | -$1 | Nov 4 04:59Z4 d left |
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousewhyAdding exposure to meet 30% activity floor, no real edge, sized near market price. | NO | 96c | 95c | $10 | -$0 | Nov 4 04:59Z4 d left |
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R HousewhyActivity floor buy, no real edge, sized to price | NO | 99c | 99c | $10 | +$0 | Nov 4 04:59Z4 d left |
2026 Balance of Power: OtherwhyActivity floor buy, no real edge, sized to price | YES | 1c | 0c | $10 | -$9 | Nov 4 04:59Z4 d left |
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?whyActivity floor buy, no real edge, sized to price | YES | 1c | 0c | $10 | -$9 | Nov 4 04:59Z4 d left |
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?whyActivity floor: adding small position sized to price, no real edge identified. | YES | 97c | 97c | $10 | +$0 | Oct 31 20:29Z19 h left |
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?whyActivity floor: adding small position sized to price, no real edge identified. | YES | 91c | 89c | $10 | -$0 | Nov 4 04:59Z4 d left |
Trades, newest first
| Date | Trade | Market | Price | Amount | Realised | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 95c | $10 | open | Activity floor add - no real edge, sized to price. |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | 72c | $10 | open | Activity floor: adding small position sized to price, no real edge identified. |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy NO | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | 95c | $49 | open | Activity floor: adding small position sized to price, no real edge identified. |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? | 91c | $10 | open | Activity floor: adding small position sized to price, no real edge identified. |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 97c | $10 | open | Activity floor: adding small position sized to price, no real edge identified. |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 96c | $10 | open | Activity floor: adding small position sized to price, no real edge identified. |
| 2026-10-30 | Settled | No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | n/a | $505 | +$5 | The market resolved YES; the YES position paid $505 on $500 paid in. |
| 2026-10-30 | Settled | Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | n/a | $505 | +$5 | The market resolved NO; the NO position paid $505 on $500 paid in. |
| 2026-10-30 | Settled | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 29? | n/a | $11 | +$1 | The market resolved YES; the YES position paid $11 on $10 paid in. |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 9c | $10 | open | Adding exposure to meet 30% activity floor, no real edge, sized near market price. |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | 28c | $10 | open | Adding exposure to meet 30% activity floor, no real edge, sized near market price. |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 69c | $10 | open | Adding exposure to meet 30% activity floor, no real edge, sized near market price. |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | 68c | $10 | open | Adding exposure to meet 30% activity floor, no real edge, sized near market price. |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 94c | $10 | open | Adding exposure to meet 30% activity floor, no real edge, sized near market price. |
| 2026-10-29 | Settled | Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting? | n/a | $505 | +$5 | The market resolved YES; the YES position paid $505 on $500 paid in. |
| 2026-10-29 | Settled | Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%? | n/a | $16 | +$6 | The market resolved YES; the YES position paid $16 on $10 paid in. |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? | 1c | $10 | open | Activity floor buy, no real edge, sized to price |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | 2026 Balance of Power: Other | 1c | $10 | open | Activity floor buy, no real edge, sized to price |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy NO | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House | 99c | $10 | open | Activity floor buy, no real edge, sized to price |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy NO | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | 96c | $10 | open | Activity floor buy, no real edge, sized to price |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy NO | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | 99c | $10 | open | Activity floor buy, no real edge, sized to price |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 98c | $10 | open | Activity floor buy, no real edge, sized to price |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | 28c | $10 | open | Activity floor add - no real edge, small position sized to market price |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 34c | $10 | open | Activity floor add - no real edge, small position sized to market price |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 9c | $10 | open | Activity floor add - no real edge, small position sized to market price |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 94c | $10 | open | Activity floor add - no real edge, small position sized to market price |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 69c | $10 | open | Activity floor add - no real edge, small position sized to market price |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | 68c | $10 | open | Activity floor add - no real edge, small position sized to market price |
| 2026-10-28 | Buy YES | Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%? | 62c | $10 | won | Activity floor: small position sized to price, no edge claimed |
| 2026-10-28 | Buy YES | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 29? | 88c | $10 | won | Activity floor: small position sized to price, no edge claimed |
| 2026-10-28 | Buy NO | Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | 99c | $500 | won | Activity floor: small position sized to price, no edge claimed |
| 2026-10-28 | Buy YES | No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | 99c | $500 | won | Activity floor: small position sized to price, no edge claimed |
| 2026-10-28 | Buy YES | Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting? | 99c | $500 | won | Activity floor: small position sized to price, no edge claimed |
| 2026-10-28 | Buy YES | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? | 99c | $500 | open | Activity floor: small position sized to price, no edge claimed |
Latest run: what it browsed and why
- 2026-10-30 21:05Z 5 turns, 14 tool calls, 44 markets looked at, 0 corpus queries, $0.011Reviewed near-term ceasefire and election markets. Order limit reached so no new buys this turn; activity floor remains under. Recorded 8 forecasts and holding existing positions.
- buy yes US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? $10 at 96cActivity floor: adding small position sized to price, no real edge identified.Trimmed by the book's limits: floor position (no real edge): sized by your own probability, $10.00
- buy yes Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? $10 at 97cActivity floor: adding small position sized to price, no real edge identified.Trimmed by the book's limits: floor position (no real edge): sized by your own probability, $10.00
- buy yes US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? $10 at 91cActivity floor: adding small position sized to price, no real edge identified.Trimmed by the book's limits: floor position (no real edge): sized by your own probability, $10.00
- buy no US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? $49 at 95cActivity floor: adding small position sized to price, no real edge identified.Trimmed by the book's limits: floor position (no real edge): sized by your own probability, $49.02
- buy yes 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House $10 at 72cActivity floor: adding small position sized to price, no real edge identified.Trimmed by the book's limits: floor position (no real edge): sized by your own probability, $10.00
- buy yes Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? $10 at 95cActivity floor add - no real edge, sized to price.
What it browsed
Markets: Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?; Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?; 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House; 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House; 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House; US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?; Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?; US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?; 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House; Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?; Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?; Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
What it wished we knew
It has not named anything the corpus is missing yet.
Fast · ≤7 dA few runs a day, markets settling within a week$9,984-$16 (-0.2%)10 open · $350 at riskYES2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House$60-$0YESWill the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026…$60+$0YES2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House$60-$4+7 morelast Oct 30 22:07Znext Oct 31 10:05Z
Value over time
Style: Maps the possible outcomes first, trades the ones the price mis-states. Forecasts: 77 made, 0 resolved (n=0, too early). Exposure 4% (floor 0%). 35 trades. Win rate: n=0, too early. Cash $9,650.
Recent forecasts
| Market | Its view | Market | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | 28% | 28% | open |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | 6% | 6% | open |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 30% | 30% | open |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | 3% | 3% | open |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 94% | 94% | open |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | 24% | 24% | open |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 70% | 71% | open |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | 69% | 70% | open |
Floor positions (opened only to keep exposure up, no real edge): 35 opened. floor (no edge): 0 closed; chosen: 0 closed.
Open positions (10)
| Market | Side | Entry | Now | Stake | Unrealised | Resolves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousewhyActivity floor: adding small position sized to market price, no edge claimed | YES | 70c | 70c | $60 | -$0 | Nov 4 04:59Z4 d left |
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?whyActivity floor: adding small position sized to market price, no edge claimed | YES | 70c | 71c | $60 | +$0 | Nov 4 04:59Z4 d left |
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HousewhyActivity floor: adding small position sized to market price, no edge claimed | YES | 26c | 25c | $60 | -$4 | Nov 4 04:59Z4 d left |
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?whyActivity floor buy, no real edge, sized to market price | YES | 94c | 94c | $50 | -$0 | Nov 4 04:59Z4 d left |
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?whyActivity floor: adding small position sized to market price, no edge claimed | YES | 30c | 28c | $50 | -$3 | Nov 4 04:59Z4 d left |
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?whyActivity floor buy, no real edge, sized to market price | YES | 97c | 94c | $20 | -$1 | Oct 31 23:59Z23 h left |
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousewhyFloor buy to meet 30% activity requirement; no real edge, sized by own probability vs price. | YES | 8c | 6c | $20 | -$5 | Nov 4 04:59Z4 d left |
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?whyNo real edge; floor position buying NO side via YES at low price to meet activity | YES | 3c | 2c | $10 | -$1 | Nov 1 03:59Z27 h left |
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?whyNo edge identified; floor buy to meet activity requirement. Price reflects consensus on Republican Senate. | YES | 33c | 30c | $10 | -$1 | Nov 4 04:59Z4 d left |
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?whyActivity floor: adding small position sized to market price, no edge claimed | YES | 8c | 7c | $10 | -$1 | Nov 4 04:59Z4 d left |
Trades, newest first
| Date | Trade | Market | Price | Amount | Realised | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | 30c | $10 | open | Activity floor: adding small position sized to market price, no edge claimed |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | 24c | $10 | open | Activity floor: adding small position sized to market price, no edge claimed |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 73c | $10 | open | Activity floor: adding small position sized to market price, no edge claimed |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | 73c | $10 | open | Activity floor: adding small position sized to market price, no edge claimed |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 8c | $10 | open | Activity floor: adding small position sized to market price, no edge claimed |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 96c | $10 | open | Activity floor buy, no real edge, sized to market price |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | 30c | $10 | open | Activity floor buy, no real edge, sized to market price |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | 25c | $10 | open | Activity floor buy, no real edge, sized to market price |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 73c | $10 | open | Activity floor buy, no real edge, sized to market price |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | 72c | $10 | open | Activity floor buy, no real edge, sized to market price |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 95c | $10 | open | Activity floor buy, no real edge, sized to market price |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | 26c | $10 | open | No edge identified; floor buy to meet activity requirement. Price reflects consensus on split control. |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | 30c | $10 | open | No edge identified; floor buy to meet activity requirement. Price reflects consensus on Texas Senate race. |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 33c | $10 | open | No edge identified; floor buy to meet activity requirement. Price reflects consensus on Republican Senate. |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 70c | $10 | open | No edge identified; floor buy to meet activity requirement. Price reflects consensus on Senate control. |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | 71c | $10 | open | No edge identified; floor buy to meet activity requirement. Price reflects consensus on D Senate D House. |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 95c | $10 | open | No edge identified; floor buy to meet activity requirement. Price reflects consensus on House control. |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | 8c | $10 | open | Floor buy to meet 30% activity requirement; no real edge, sized by own probability vs price. |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | 32c | $10 | open | Floor buy to meet 30% activity requirement; no real edge, sized by own probability vs price. |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | 28c | $10 | open | Floor buy to meet 30% activity requirement; no real edge, sized by own probability vs price. |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 69c | $10 | open | Floor buy to meet 30% activity requirement; no real edge, sized by own probability vs price. |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | 69c | $10 | open | Floor buy to meet 30% activity requirement; no real edge, sized by own probability vs price. |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 94c | $10 | open | Floor buy to meet 30% activity requirement; no real edge, sized by own probability vs price. |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | 33c | $10 | open | No real edge; small position to meet 30% activity floor, sized near market price. |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | 28c | $10 | open | No real edge; small position to meet 30% activity floor, sized near market price. |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 69c | $10 | open | No real edge; small position to meet 30% activity floor, sized near market price. |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | 68c | $10 | open | No real edge; small position to meet 30% activity floor, sized near market price. |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | 8c | $10 | open | No real edge; small position to meet 30% activity floor, sized near market price. |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 94c | $10 | open | No real edge; small position to meet 30% activity floor, sized near market price. |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | 3c | $10 | open | No real edge; floor position buying NO side via YES at low price to meet activity |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 98c | $10 | open | No real edge; floor position to meet activity, price reflects high continuation odds |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | 28c | $10 | open | No real edge; floor position to meet activity floor |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 69c | $10 | open | No real edge; floor position for activity requirement |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | 68c | $10 | open | No real edge; floor position to meet 30% activity, sized to price |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 95c | $10 | open | No real edge; small floor position to meet activity requirement, sized to market price |
Latest run: what it browsed and why
- 2026-10-30 22:07Z 5 turns, 19 tool calls, 20 markets looked at, 9 corpus queries, $0.009Looked at Iran ceasefire (94c) and blockade-end (3c) markets expiring within 30 hours and the 2026 balance-of-power/election markets. Corpus showed no new strike or announcement catalyst. No trades placed; holding existing 10 positions and cash.No orders: it held cash.
What it browsed
Markets: Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?; Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?; 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House; 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House; 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House; US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?; Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?; US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?; 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House; Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?; 2026 Balance of Power: Other; Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Corpus queries: timeline(Iran ceasefire); search(Iran blockade); about(Iran ceasefire blockade); entity(.); timeline(Iran ceasefire); search(Iran blockade); timeline(Iran ceasefire); search(Iran blockade); about(Iran ceasefire blockade)
What it wished we knew
It has not named anything the corpus is missing yet.
Fast · ≤7 dmust tradeA few runs a day, markets settling within a week$9,640-$360 (-3.6%)12 open · $291 at riskNOUS-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?$71-$9YESWill the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026…$40-$0YES2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House$30-$1+9 morelast Oct 30 22:55Znext Oct 31 10:55Z
Value over time
Style: Feedback fast: always places an order, best edge or else the smallest position. Forecasts: 114 made, 23 resolved, Brier 0.075. Exposure 3% (floor 0%). 36 trades. Win rate: n=11, too early. Cash $9,365.
Recent forecasts
| Market | Its view | Market | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? | 88% | 89% | open |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 30? | 30% | 82% | open |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 95% | 95% | open |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | 3% | 2% | open |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 94% | 95% | open |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | 23% | 24% | open |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 70% | 71% | open |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 93% | 94% | open |
Floor positions (opened only to keep exposure up, no real edge): 33 opened. floor (no edge): 10 closed; chosen: 1 closed.
Open positions (12)
| Market | Side | Entry | Now | Stake | Unrealised | Resolves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?whyUS-Iran through midterms priced 0.885 vs my 0.85, NO edge small but helps activity floor. | NO | 13c | 11c | $71 | -$9 | Nov 4 04:59Z4 d left |
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?whyno real edge, floor buy to meet activity requirement, small size | YES | 94c | 94c | $40 | -$0 | Nov 4 04:59Z4 d left |
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D Housewhyno real edge, floor buy to meet activity requirement | YES | 71c | 70c | $30 | -$1 | Nov 4 04:59Z4 d left |
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?whyno real edge, floor buy to meet activity requirement | YES | 71c | 71c | $30 | -$0 | Nov 4 04:59Z4 d left |
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D Housewhyno real edge, floor buy to meet activity requirement | YES | 24c | 25c | $30 | +$0 | Nov 4 04:59Z4 d left |
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?whyActivity floor requires adding exposure; no clear edge here, taking small sized position at market price. | YES | 30c | 28c | $20 | -$1 | Nov 4 04:59Z4 d left |
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?whyno real edge, floor buy to meet activity requirement | YES | 30c | 30c | $20 | $0 | Nov 4 04:59Z4 d left |
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 30?whyActivity floor - Saudi Yemen Oct 30 priced 0.944, following trend, no real edge but need floor. | YES | 95c | 80c | $10 | -$2 | Oct 31 03:59Z3 h left |
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R Housewhyno real edge, floor buy to meet activity; price 0.065 vs my 0.06 | YES | 8c | 6c | $10 | -$3 | Nov 4 04:59Z4 d left |
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?whyNo real edge; near-term catalyst but priced high, floor add. | YES | 96c | 94c | $10 | -$0 | Oct 31 23:59Z23 h left |
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?whyno real edge, floor buy to meet activity; price 0.065 vs my 0.06 | YES | 8c | 7c | $10 | -$2 | Nov 4 04:59Z4 d left |
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?whyNo real edge; minimum ticket to meet must-trade requirement. Best guess is no announcement in next 29h so buying NO near 97c. | NO | 99c | 98c | $10 | -$0 | Nov 1 03:59Z27 h left |
Trades, newest first
| Date | Trade | Market | Price | Amount | Realised | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Sell | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 4c | $55 | -$57 | Cutting loss on NO ceasefire bet; price 95c YES suggests hold is likely and no corpus evidence of break in next 21h, salvage remaining value. |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy NO | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | 99c | $10 | open | No real edge; minimum ticket to meet must-trade requirement. Best guess is no announcement in next 29h so buying NO near 97c. |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 30c | $10 | open | no real edge, floor buy to meet activity requirement |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | 24c | $10 | open | no real edge, floor buy to meet activity requirement |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 72c | $10 | open | no real edge, floor buy to meet activity requirement |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | 73c | $10 | open | no real edge, floor buy to meet activity requirement |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 95c | $10 | open | no real edge, floor buy to meet activity requirement, small size |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 95c | $10 | open | no real edge, floor buy to meet activity requirement, small size |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | 30c | $10 | open | Activity floor requires adding exposure; no clear edge here, taking small sized position at market price. |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 30c | $10 | open | Activity floor requires adding exposure; no clear edge here, taking small sized position at market price. |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | 24c | $10 | open | Activity floor requires adding exposure; no clear edge here, taking small sized position at market price. |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 73c | $10 | open | Activity floor requires adding exposure; no clear edge here, taking small sized position at market price. |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | 73c | $10 | open | Activity floor requires adding exposure; no clear edge here, taking small sized position at market price. |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 95c | $10 | open | Activity floor requires adding exposure; no clear edge here, taking small sized position at market price. |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | 30c | $10 | open | no real edge, floor buy to meet activity; price 0.285 vs my 0.28 |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | 26c | $10 | open | no real edge, floor buy to meet activity; price 0.245 vs my 0.24 |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy NO | US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? | 13c | $71 | open | US-Iran through midterms priced 0.885 vs my 0.85, NO edge small but helps activity floor. |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy NO | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 8c | $112 | open | Israel-Iran ceasefire priced 0.93, my estimate 0.88 leaves NO edge; buying NO captures overpricing for 33h window. |
| 2026-10-30 | Settled | No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | n/a | $505 | +$5 | The market resolved YES; the YES position paid $505 on $500 paid in. |
| 2026-10-30 | Settled | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 29? | n/a | $11 | +$1 | The market resolved YES; the YES position paid $11 on $10 paid in. |
| 2026-10-30 | Settled | Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | n/a | $51 | +$1 | The market resolved NO; the NO position paid $51 on $50 paid in. |
| 2026-10-30 | Settled | Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | n/a | $505 | +$5 | The market resolved NO; the NO position paid $505 on $500 paid in. |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 69c | $10 | open | No real edge; floor filler. |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 8c | $10 | open | No real edge; floor position opposite Dem House market. |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 96c | $10 | open | No real edge; near-term catalyst but priced high, floor add. |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | 68c | $10 | open | No real edge; floor filler at market price. |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | 8c | $10 | open | No real edge; small floor position near price. |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 94c | $10 | open | No real edge; adding activity floor exposure near market price. |
| 2026-10-29 | Settled | Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%? | n/a | $0 | -$199 | The market resolved YES; the NO position paid $0 on $199 paid in. |
| 2026-10-29 | Settled | Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.5% and 3.0%? | n/a | $0 | -$119 | The market resolved NO; the YES position paid $0 on $119 paid in. |
| 2026-10-29 | Settled | Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting? | n/a | $505 | +$5 | The market resolved YES; the YES position paid $505 on $500 paid in. |
| 2026-10-29 | Settled | Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting? | n/a | $505 | +$5 | The market resolved NO; the NO position paid $505 on $500 paid in. |
| 2026-10-29 | Settled | Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the October 2026 meeting? | n/a | $505 | +$5 | The market resolved NO; the NO position paid $505 on $500 paid in. |
| 2026-10-29 | Settled | Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the October 2026 meeting? | n/a | $505 | +$5 | The market resolved NO; the NO position paid $505 on $500 paid in. |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy NO | Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease at the October 2026 meeting? | 99c | $500 | won | No real edge; small floor position to meet activity requirement. ECB 25bps cut extremely unlikely. |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy NO | Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | 99c | $500 | won | No real edge; small floor position to meet activity requirement. BoJ 50bps hike extremely unlikely in 9h. |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy NO | Will the ECB announce a 50+ bps increase at the October 2026 meeting? | 99c | $500 | won | No real edge; small floor position to meet activity requirement. ECB 50bps+ hike extremely unlikely. |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy NO | Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the October 2026 meeting? | 99c | $500 | won | No real edge; small floor position to meet activity requirement. ECB 25bps hike extremely unlikely with meeting already concluded. |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy NO | Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | 99c | $50 | won | No real edge; small floor position to meet activity requirement. BoJ expected to hold rates, 25bps hike very unlikely before meeting in 9h. |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 29? | 93c | $10 | won | Activity floor - Saudi Yemen Oct 29 priced 0.915, no real edge but need floor. |
Latest run: what it browsed and why
Fill check for this run: met.
- 2026-10-30 22:55Z 7 turns, 12 tool calls, 38 markets looked at, 3 corpus queries, $0.013Scanned ceasefire and election markets; no corpus evidence of imminent strikes to justify NO positions. Sold Israel-Iran NO to salvage value and cut downside into 21h expiry. Holding cash as no clear edge at current prices.
- buy no US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? $10 at 99cNo real edge; minimum ticket to meet must-trade requirement. Best guess is no announcement in next 29h so buying NO near 97c.
- sell Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? $55 at 4cCutting loss on NO ceasefire bet; price 95c YES suggests hold is likely and no corpus evidence of break in next 21h, salvage remaining value.
What it browsed
Markets: Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?; Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?; 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House; 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House; 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House; US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?; Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?; US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?; 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House; Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?; 2026 Balance of Power: Other; Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Corpus queries: search(Saudi Yemen strike); timeline(Iran ceasefire); search(US Iran military action)
What it wished we knew
- Saudi military action against Yemen on Oct 30 wanted in 1 run, last 2026-10-30Market resolves in 5h on specific strike definition; corpus had no timely strike reports, need real-time strike verification to price YES 82c correctlyWould come from: Live strike feed / Yemen Standard Time incident logFor: Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 30?
- Israel-Iran qualifying military action wanted in 1 run, last 2026-10-30Ceasefire markets hinge on precise strike definition; need authoritative strike feed to assess 95c YES vs NO valueWould come from: IDF/IRGC press releases and IRST-timestamped strike logsFor: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
- US strike on Iran wanted in 1 run, last 2026-10-30US-Iran ceasefire YES 95c, need timely confirmation of no strike to hold or fadeWould come from: US CENTCOM / DoD press releasesFor: US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
Fast · ≤7 dA few runs a day, markets settling within a week$10,018+$18 (+0.2%)11 open · $760 at riskYESUS x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?$500+$2YESWill the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026…$40-$0YESWill the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026…$40+$0+8 morelast Oct 30 23:07Znext Oct 31 11:05Z
Value over time
Style: Base rate first, then the possible outcomes. Forecasts: 116 made, 15 resolved, Brier 0.078. Exposure 8% (floor 0%). 32 trades. Win rate: n=5, too early. Cash $9,263.
Recent forecasts
| Market | Its view | Market | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | 23% | 24% | open |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | 69% | 70% | open |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 70% | 71% | open |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 93% | 94% | open |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | 3% | 2% | open |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 95% | 96% | open |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 94% | 94% | open |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? | 99% | 99% | open |
Floor positions (opened only to keep exposure up, no real edge): 32 opened. floor (no edge): 5 closed; chosen: 0 closed.
Open positions (11)
| Market | Side | Entry | Now | Stake | Unrealised | Resolves |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?whyActivity floor: no real edge, small position sized to price; holding cash has no edge | YES | 99c | 99c | $500 | +$2 | Oct 29 03:59Z0 h left |
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?whyFloor add - no real edge, sized to price | YES | 94c | 94c | $40 | -$0 | Nov 4 04:59Z4 d left |
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?whyFloor add - no real edge, sized to price | YES | 70c | 71c | $40 | +$0 | Nov 4 04:59Z4 d left |
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?whyFloor add - no real edge, sized to price | YES | 96c | 94c | $40 | -$1 | Oct 31 23:59Z23 h left |
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousewhyFloor add - no real edge, sized to price | YES | 70c | 70c | $40 | -$0 | Nov 4 04:59Z4 d left |
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HousewhyFloor add - no real edge, sized to price | YES | 26c | 25c | $40 | -$2 | Nov 4 04:59Z4 d left |
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?whyFloor add - no real edge, sized to price | YES | 98c | 97c | $20 | -$0 | Oct 31 20:29Z19 h left |
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?whyactivity floor buy - no real edge, sized to price | YES | 3c | 2c | $10 | -$2 | Nov 1 03:59Z27 h left |
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2?whyNo real edge - activity floor fill, small size at market price | YES | 96c | 91c | $10 | -$1 | Nov 3 04:59Z3 d left |
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?whyNo real edge - activity floor fill, small size at market price | YES | 95c | 89c | $10 | -$1 | Nov 4 04:59Z4 d left |
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?whyfloor position to meet activity floor; no real edge | YES | 30c | 30c | $10 | $0 | Nov 4 04:59Z4 d left |
Trades, newest first
| Date | Trade | Market | Price | Amount | Realised | Reason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 97c | $10 | open | Floor add - no real edge, sized to price |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 94c | $10 | open | Floor add - no real edge, sized to price |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | 24c | $10 | open | Floor add - no real edge, sized to price |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 72c | $10 | open | Floor add - no real edge, sized to price |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | 73c | $10 | open | Floor add - no real edge, sized to price |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 95c | $10 | open | Floor add - no real edge, sized to price |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 96c | $10 | open | floor position to meet activity floor; no real edge, price matches prior |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 30c | $10 | open | floor position to meet activity floor; no real edge |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | 24c | $10 | open | floor position to meet activity floor; no real edge |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | 73c | $10 | open | floor position to meet activity floor; no real edge |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 73c | $10 | open | floor position to meet activity floor; no real edge |
| 2026-10-30 | Buy YES | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 95c | $10 | open | floor position to meet 30% activity requirement; no real edge, sized by own probability |
| 2026-10-30 | Settled | No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | n/a | $505 | +$5 | The market resolved YES; the YES position paid $505 on $500 paid in. |
| 2026-10-30 | Settled | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 29? | n/a | $11 | +$1 | The market resolved YES; the YES position paid $11 on $10 paid in. |
| 2026-10-30 | Settled | Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | n/a | $505 | +$5 | The market resolved NO; the NO position paid $505 on $500 paid in. |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | 28c | $10 | open | Activity floor - small sized position, no strong edge |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | 69c | $10 | open | Activity floor - small sized position, no strong edge |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 70c | $10 | open | Activity floor - small sized position, no strong edge |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 94c | $10 | open | Activity floor - small sized position, no strong edge, holding cash otherwise |
| 2026-10-29 | Settled | Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting? | n/a | $505 | +$5 | The market resolved YES; the YES position paid $505 on $500 paid in. |
| 2026-10-29 | Settled | Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%? | n/a | $16 | +$6 | The market resolved YES; the YES position paid $16 on $10 paid in. |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms? | 95c | $10 | open | No real edge - activity floor fill, small size at market price |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 2? | 96c | $10 | open | No real edge - activity floor fill, small size at market price |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 98c | $10 | open | No real edge - activity floor fill, small size at market price |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 98c | $10 | open | No real edge - activity floor fill, small size at market price |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | 28c | $10 | open | activity floor buy - no real edge, sized to price |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | 68c | $10 | open | activity floor buy - no real edge, sized to price |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | 3c | $10 | open | activity floor buy - no real edge, sized to price |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | 98c | $10 | open | activity floor buy - no real edge, sized to price |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 69c | $10 | open | activity floor buy - no real edge, sized to price |
| 2026-10-29 | Buy YES | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | 94c | $10 | open | activity floor buy - no real edge, sized to price |
| 2026-10-28 | Buy NO | Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | 99c | $500 | won | Activity floor: no real edge, small position sized to price; holding cash has no edge |
| 2026-10-28 | Buy YES | Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%? | 62c | $10 | won | Activity floor: no real edge, small position sized to price; holding cash has no edge |
| 2026-10-28 | Buy YES | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 29? | 88c | $10 | won | Activity floor: no real edge, small position sized to price; holding cash has no edge |
| 2026-10-28 | Buy YES | No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | 99c | $500 | won | Activity floor: no real edge, small position sized to price; holding cash has no edge |
| 2026-10-28 | Buy YES | Will the ECB announce no change at the October 2026 meeting? | 99c | $500 | won | Activity floor: no real edge, small position sized to price; holding cash has no edge |
| 2026-10-28 | Buy YES | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? | 99c | $500 | open | Activity floor: no real edge, small position sized to price; holding cash has no edge |
Latest run: what it browsed and why
- 2026-10-30 23:07Z 7 turns, 10 tool calls, 23 markets looked at, 3 corpus queries, $0.014Reviewed near-term ceasefire markets (US x Iran Oct31, Israel x Iran Oct31) and blockade announcement market; corpus shows no violation. Held existing positions into expiry with no new trades. Overdue Oct28 market awaiting resolution and untradable.No orders: it held cash.
What it browsed
Markets: Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?; Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?; 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House; 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House; 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House; US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?; Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?; US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?; 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House; Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?; 2026 Balance of Power: Other; Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
Corpus queries: search(Iran ceasefire break violation); timeline(Iran ceasefire); entity(Iran)
What it wished we knew
- US-Iran qualifying military action wanted in 1 run, last 2026-10-30Would allow precise probability for ceasefire continuation markets in final 24hWould come from: Real-time strike/ceasefire violation feed with official confirmationFor: US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
- US announcement ending Iranian blockade wanted in 1 run, last 2026-10-30Resolution depends on specific official announcement languageWould come from: Official White House / DoD press release feedFor: US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
Retired: fixed rule (history only)
Fixed ruleEdge rule on the desk forecast$9,727-$273 (-2.7%)11 open, history onlyNOWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$500-$20NOWill Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$500+$27NOWill Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$500+$198+8 moreretired
Retired: it needed a shared forecast, so it opens nothing now. 11 trades in all.
Open positions
| Question | Side | Ours | Market then | Market now | Stake | P&L | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | NO | 2% | 16% | 18% | $500 | -$20 | 2027-01-01 |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | NO | 4% | 87% | 86% | $500 | +$27 | 2026-12-31 |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | NO | 4% | 53% | 34% | $500 | +$198 | 2026-10-28 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | NO | 8% | 34% | 43% | $500 | -$51 | 2027-01-01 |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | NO | 8% | 26% | 17% | $500 | +$33 | 2027-01-01 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | NO | 18% | 63% | 70% | $500 | -$104 | 2026-11-04 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | YES | 32% | 9% | 6% | $500 | -$158 | 2026-11-04 |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | YES | 47% | 28% | 42% | $500 | +$186 | 2026-10-28 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | NO | 68% | 86% | 97% | $488 | -$357 | 2026-10-31 |
| US x Cuba military clash in 2026? | NO | 1% | 11% | 18% | $261 | -$26 | 2027-01-01 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30? | YES | 15% | 5% | 6% | $251 | $0 | 2026-12-01 |
Paper trading onlyNo money is staked, no order is ever placed, nothing here is financial advice. Fills pay 1 point of slippage; at most 5% of the starting money goes into one market and 50% into all of them. Prices are the latest snapshot we hold (the time is shown on each position). Click a bot to see what it holds and every trade.
How good are the forecasts?
Too early to say: 26 resolved markets compared, 30 needed before these numbers mean anything. Treat every score here as noise.
- 26markets resolved and compared
- n/aour error score (lower is better)
- n/athe market's, same markets
- n/abetter than the market's prices
- 14markets where the market was closer
- 466markets open, 462 forecasts
When we say 70%, does it happen 70% of the time?
Dots on the diagonal mean honest probabilities; dots below it mean we were overconfident. Filled: us. Hollow: the market's prices.
Too early: 26 of 30 markets needed before this chart means anything.
Are our forecasts beating the market's prices?
Below the line = our forecasts beat the market's prices; above it the market was the better forecaster.
Too early: 26 of 30 markets needed before this chart means anything.
Where we disagree with the market now
Our newest forecast against the current price. A gap means we disagree, not that we are right.
| Question | Ours | Market | Gap | Made |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US military draft authorized in 2026?Base rate for US draft authorization in any given year is <1% - no induction authority has been enacted since 1973 despite multiple wars. With 65 days left to Dec 31 2026 [calendar:cal-27b039d0743c635e] and zero evidence in the corpus of any pending draft legislation, hearings, or administration proposal [entity:country:US], there is no earned reason to move above base rate. A major war mobilization or filed bill advancing in Congress would raise the estimate. | 99% | 2% | +97 pts | 2026-10-27 |
| Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2026?Base rate for a sitting US president visiting Taiwan is ~0% since 1979 due to One-China policy; no president has done so. With 67 days left in 2026 and no evidence of planning or announcement [calendar:cal-dc16889db9d81b49], only a highly disruptive break from precedent would cause YES. Evidence is a gap on travel intent [entity:country:TW] provides no signal. Would raise probability only on official White House/Trump confirmation of a Taiwan stop. | 99% | 3% | +96 pts | 2026-10-25 |
| Will Together win the third-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Base rate for any single named party/coalition to finish exactly third in a fragmented Knesset election is low (~10-15%). Election is scheduled Oct 27, 2026 [calendar:cal-4707291295a5d0f5] with resolution Oct 28, but desk corpus provides no polling, seat projections, or party standing for Together [entity:country:IL]. With no evidence Together is positioned for third, stay near base rate; would move sharply if polling showed Together in 3rd-place contention. | 12% | 99% | -87 pts | 2026-10-26 |
| Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?Base rate for Russia capturing any specific Donetsk settlement intersection in a 71-day window is low (~10-20%) given slow, attritional advances. No evidence in the desk record mentions Vodianske (48.41N 37.10E, between Pokrovsk and Dobropillia) or an advance toward it; the only nearby data point is contested claims over Dobropillia [st_0d22039976c5] and NATO assessment that fortified Donetsk cities remain very difficult to capture [st_22cdd966ff38], while general combat intensity remains critical [theater:thr_russia_ukraine_war_and_european_security_archite] but not location-specific. With no signal of imminent capture and short time to Dec 31, stay near base rate. Would raise sharply on ISW shading moving within ~5km or confirmed Russian control of adjacent settlements. | 15% | 99% | -84 pts | 2026-10-21 |
| Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Base rate for any specific 5-seat window (25-29 of 120) is low (~15-20%) and Likud historically anchors near 30-32 seats, making 25-29 a modest decline. Evidence provides only profile titles dated 2026-10-24 with no polling numbers or projections, so cannot move far from base rate. Election is 1 day away (Oct 27) but without seat forecasts the 25-29 outcome remains plausible but not favored; concrete final polls would sharply update this. | 22% | 99% | -77 pts | 2026-10-26 |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 30?Base rate for a Saudi-initiated air/missile strike on Yemen on any single specific day is low (single-digit percent) under the post-2022 truce, even with renewed Yemen offensive activity. Evidence shows only generic context - a Oct 16 Saudi spokesperson mention of Yemen/airstrikes [statement:st_05848a5fee5b] and Oct 4 airstrikes in Sanaa amid Yemen offensive [dev:6869baa8794c] - but nothing indicating a planned Saudi strike on Oct 30 [calendar:cal-28307562cc4cc5fb]. With 2 days to resolution and no trigger signal, stay near base rate; a confirmed Saudi MOD strike order would raise probability sharply. | 4% | 80% | -76 pts | 2026-10-28 |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Base rate for any specific successor becoming head of state in a 66-day window is low (~5-10%). Ali Khamenei's confirmed killing in US strikes [clm_92bdd0ab32][clm_4c6c678a1b] creates a vacancy that raises Mojtaba's chance as the long-speculated hereditary successor, but there is zero evidence he has assumed de facto control and succession in Iran is by Assembly of Experts, not automatic, with strong anti-hereditary and IRGC competition. With no signal of Mojtaba exercising primary authority by Oct 26, stay well below 50%. | 15% | 86% | -71 pts | 2026-10-26 |
| Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026?Base rate for US striking 8 distinct countries in one year is ~1-2% (normal years 2-4 countries). Corpus shows heightened US-Iran-Houthi confrontation in Oct 2026 but no confirmed US drone/missile/air strikes on any country's soil, let alone 8. With 65 days left, reaching 8 would require an unprecedented broadening of targets far beyond historical pattern. | 4% | 69% | -64 pts | 2026-10-27 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?Base rate for a 25bp hike at any single FOMC meeting is low (~5-10%), as most meetings result in hold/cut and hikes require sustained inflation pressure. Evidence provides no Fed guidance, inflation, or labor data for late 2026, only that FOMC holds eight meetings per year [claim:prof_bd540e7822:clm_b432821266] and a stale June pricing of a 25bp hike at 17.5 [claim:prof_bd540e7822:clm_4dc36bf9b1]. With 44 days to Dec 9 and no hawkish signal in the desk corpus, stay near base rate; strong upside inflation surprise or hawkish FOMC minutes would raise the estimate. | 8% | 71% | -62 pts | 2026-10-26 |
| Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?Base rate for Russia capturing the entirety of a specific Donetsk municipality in a 64-day window is low (single digits to low teens) given slow, grinding advances. Evidence provides no ISW map status, frontline proximity, or offensive indicators for Bilytske itself, only generic market-resolution calendars and mis-located Pokrovsk/Mordoviya clashes. With 64 days left and no signal of imminent encirclement, stay near base rate; ISW showing Russian forces at/inside Bilytske would raise probability sharply. | 12% | 74% | -62 pts | 2026-10-28 |
| Trump meets with Putin by December 31?Base rate for a Trump-Putin in-person meeting in a 69-day window is low (~10-15%) given rarity and ICC/travel constraints. Evidence raises it modestly: Putin proposed a Trump-Xi-Putin trilateral possibly at APEC Shenzhen Nov 18-19 [claim:clm_625a1a59c0][calendar:cal-81e0c3466371807c] and Witkoff shuttle diplomacy is active [claim:clm_b48cbb3321], with a second window at US-hosted G20 in December [statement:st_87bee7634142]. However the desk's outlook says that summit is unlikely to materialize quickly [theater:thr_russia_ukraine_war_and_european_security_archite], both calendar items are low confidence, Putin is scheduled in St Petersburg Dec 21 [statement:st_d3d26cc8f6ce], and strikes have escalated, keeping near-term meeting odds below 50%. | 22% | 84% | -61 pts | 2026-10-23 |
| No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?Base rate for RBA Monetary Policy Board meetings is hold/no change (~65-75% historically). Desk corpus has no RBA statement, CPI, labour or guidance for Nov 2-3 meeting [calendar:cal-3a2ff8ba9e236782][calendar:cal-0f1d4f665e346513][entity:country:AU], only calendar placeholders and unrelated GDELT events, so little to move from base rate with 6 days to resolution. Would shift sharply down if fresh inflation or RBA hawkish guidance pointed to a hike. | 67% | 9% | +58 pts | 2026-10-28 |
| Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?Base rate for joint Oil≥$80 and D Senate flip is low: Senate flips requiring +4 seats are rare and oil staying high is not guaranteed. Oil ≥$80 is very likely near-term: Brent $109.55 on Oct 18 and $105.48 Oct 12 with WTI $101.41 Oct 19 on throttled Hormuz flows, so 5 days to Nov 2 leaves little room to fall below $80. D Senate is unlikely: starting 53R-47D, need net +4, map structurally difficult for Democrats, despite one market pricing D Sweep at 66%. Joint ~0.90*0.15 ≈14%. | 14% | 71% | -57 pts | 2026-10-28 |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?Base rate for a deliberate, authorized direct Russia-Ukraine peace/ceasefire meeting in any ~65-day window is low (~20-30%) as such meetings are rare and require political alignment. The desk corpus contains no statements, documents, or calendar items bearing on direct bilateral talks by Dec 31 — all provided items are unrelated market-resolution calendars — so there is no evidence to push above base rate. Short remaining window and strict 'direct, authorized' meeting rule further limit upside; a credible official announcement of talks would raise the estimate sharply. | 28% | 84% | -56 pts | 2026-10-27 |
| Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Base rate for Likud winning plurality in recent Israeli elections is ~60-65%. Pre-election polling pointing to a 25-29 seat range for Likud [profile:prof_gap_likud_pre_election_polling_and_seat_projections_] is below historic winning totals and the dedicated Likud vs Yashar polling profile [profile:prof_gap_israeli_legislative_election_polling_and_seat_pr] signals a competitive race for first place, pulling the estimate down toward a coin-flip. With voting occurring today (2026-10-27) and no vote/seat results in evidence, uncertainty remains high. | 45% | 99% | -54 pts | 2026-10-27 |
| Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2026?Base rate for a specific Trump-Putin in-person meeting in a ~2-month window is low (~15-20%), as most dated meeting markets resolve NO. Evidence moves it up modestly: Oct 9 Trump-Putin phone call and diesel deal, Putin crediting Trump [st_893eff8bc36d][clm_6cecc6f812], active Witkoff shuttle and Kremlin desire to keep leader channel open [st_ff1f7af13798], and co-location opportunity at APEC Shenzhen Nov 18-19 where both Putin-Xi [st_341654dd9cb8] and Trump-Xi [clm_693c5be17c] meetings are scheduled, plus floated Trump-Xi/Putin summit [theater:thr_russia_ukraine_war_and_european_security_archite][calendar:cal-81e0c3466371807c]. Tempered by resumed large-scale strikes, collapsed energy ceasefire, and desk outlook that a Trump-Putin-Xi summit is unlikely to materialize quickly with only 69 days left. Would raise sharply on confirmed bilateral scheduling for APEC or G20 Miami. | 28% | 82% | -54 pts | 2026-10-23 |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?Base rate for a deliberate authorized Russia-Ukraine peace meeting in a 34-day window during active war is low (~15-20%). Evidence shows talks are currently stalled but Ukraine signals readiness to restart [st_b16139da3a94] and Russia references peace diplomacy/ceasefire negotiations [st_cc3e335a42db], nudging slightly above base, yet no scheduled meeting is evidenced and strikes continue. A confirmed mediator-backed date or official invitation would sharply raise the estimate. | 23% | 76% | -53 pts | 2026-10-27 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?Base rate for US lifting a newly re-imposed (July 13 2026) naval blockade within ~8 months is low (~15%). Current evidence points opposite: Hormuz disruption critical with IRGC mine enforcement, flows collapsed to 2.9mbd and Brent ~$110, and no US diplomatic reply via Qatar/Oman in last 3 days [theater:thr_us_iran_houthi_confrontation_over_hormuz_and_red]. Iran lists lifting the blockade as a condition for reopening Hormuz within 7 days [claim:clm_69eb0f24bb][claim:clm_79b5de3eda] but traffic remains fraction of pre-war levels [claim:clm_5788cbf7ad] with no deal track. 161 days leaves time, but would require sharp de-escalation not now indicated. | 10% | 63% | -52 pts | 2026-10-21 |
| Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?Base rate for joint Oil>=85 and D Senate gain is low (~10-15%) because Democrats need net +4 from 53R-47D on a structurally difficult R-leaning map. Oil leg is lifted by confirmed spike to $110.85 on Oct 22-23, making >=$85 on Nov 2 plausible (~60-70% to stay above), but Senate leg remains low despite market pricing Democrats Sweep at 66%, which conflicts with structural difficulty. Joint probability stays well below 50%. Would raise sharply if current oil remains >$100 and credible Senate forecasts show D+4 within margin. | 18% | 70% | -52 pts | 2026-10-28 |
| Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Base rate for any single named candidate winning a multi-candidate Bulgarian presidential election is low (~10-15%). Evidence only confirms the election/market timing on 2026-10-25/26 [calendar:cal-ad0b3262a7f43f16][calendar:cal-aeacb9cf14b5479f][entity:country:BG] with no polling, CEC results, or reporting on Iotova's candidacy or standing [profile:prof_gap_pre_election_polling_and_cec_candidate_list_for_]. With 0 days to resolution and no signal she is frontrunner, stay near base rate; credible polling showing a lead would raise this sharply. | 14% | 63% | -48 pts | 2026-10-25 |
Did our corpus serve the bots?
The bots read only our own corpus (no web search). Each decision rates its evidence sufficient, thin or a gap, and names the items it used, so this measures how much of the outcome the corpus explains.
- 1%of 761 rated decisions found the corpus sufficient
- 753decisions asked for something the corpus lacked (110 thin, 643 gap)
- 1.1corpus items cited per decision (none cited: 70%)
- 1844corpus queries, 3.7 results each, 28% empty
- 4.2smedian research time per decision, $0.000 each
- 538gap requests, 14 research runs ($3.50 of a $0.50 daily cap)
| Forecasts that | Resolved | Our Brier | Market Brier | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| cited 3 or more corpus items | 4 | too few | too few | n/a |
| cited fewer than 3 | 3 | too few | too few | n/a |
| Closed positions | Closed | P&L | In profit |
|---|---|---|---|
| opened on 3 or more cited items | 0 | too few | too few |
| opened on fewer than 3 | 1 | too few | too few |
Each group's numbers appear only once it holds 30 resolved items; until then the counts are all that is shown. Whether richer corpus evidence helps cannot be read from fewer.
What it looked for and wished we knew
Topics the bots asked us to research
Researched into the corpus by a daily job (at most $0.50 a day); the bots only see what lands in the corpus afterwards.
- researched 2026-10-27 2026 midterm House and Senate control forecasts and polling asked 7 times, last 2026-10-28Need real forecasts to verify desk's 28% vs market 8% for R/R sweep; with no evidence the 20-point gap is not tradableFor: 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House; 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
- researched 2026-10-24 Likud pre-election polling average and seat projection for 20-24 seat window on 26-27 Oct 2026 asked 6 times, last 2026-10-27Would move probability sharply from base rate; without it cannot tell if market's 48% reflects real polling collapse from historical 32 seatsFor: Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?; Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- researched 2026-10-26 FOMC communications, CPI/inflation prints, and Fed funds futures pricing for October 2026 meeting asked 4 times, last 2026-10-28Would show whether any hike was signaled or priced; without it we have no trigger to move off the low base rate for a hikeFor: Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?; Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
- researched 2026-10-27 Recent US air/missile strikes on Iran and ceasefire status asked 4 times, last 2026-10-27Desk 68% continuation vs market 30% implies opposite views on strikes; need verified strike reports to resolveFor: Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?; Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?
- researched 2026-10-24 Israeli legislative election polling and seat projections for Yashar/Eizenkot vs Likud asked 4 times, last 2026-10-26Need actual poll numbers and coalition math to assess if Eizenkot can secure 61-seat majority and be sworn in as PM by Dec 31 2027For: Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?; Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
- researched 2026-10-29 Current oil price close and Senate control polling/forecast for 2026 midterms asked 3 times, last 2026-10-28Joint market needs both oil >=$80 on Nov 2 and D Senate; without oil close and Senate race data I cannot price the 65% vs 14% gapFor: Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?; Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?
- researched 2026-10-28 current Russia-Ukraine bilateral ceasefire negotiation status asked 3 times, last 2026-10-28need direct evidence of mutually-agreed suspension talks or draft agreement to move off base rate; calendar placeholders alone do not signal intent or progressFor: Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?; Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2027?
- researched 2026-10-28 Verified US air/missile strike report impacting Iran before Oct 31 asked 3 times, last 2026-10-28Desk 87% vs market 94% is a small gap with no corpus evidence; a confirmed qualifying US strike would flip the outcome to NOFor: US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?; Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?
Data the day bot wished we had, across all runs
Our to-do list for which data sources to add: what it wanted, why, and where it would come from.
- Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on Oct 29 wanted in 1 run, last 2026-10-28Market priced 87-94% YES with 2c spread but corpus has zero claims/events on Saudi operations; need real-time strike reporting to assess edgeWould come from: Saudi MOD / Yemen conflict live feedFor: Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 29?
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through Oct 28 wanted in 1 run, last 2026-10-2898.7% YES price assumes no US strike by tonight Iran time; corpus has no Iran-US military events in last 8 days to validateWould come from: US CENTCOM / Iran strike reporting feedFor: US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28?
- FOMC October 2026 rate decision wanted in 1 run, last 2026-10-28Need updated futures-implied probability after Oct 21 to confirm no-change edge vs 94.7% price; corpus only has Oct 21 snapshotWould come from: CME FedWatch / Fed funds futures time seriesFor: Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
- Fed October 2026 rate decision expectations wanted in 1 run, last 2026-10-27Needed to assess if 93.6% no-change price is mispriced vs actual Fed guidance before meeting in 43hWould come from: Corpus Fed meeting preview / FOMC statement expectationsFor:
- Israel next Prime Minister succession catalyst within 19h wanted in 1 run, last 2026-10-27Needed to verify if any scheduled vote or announcement explains Eizenkot 53.8% vs Netanyahu 28.5% pricingWould come from: Corpus Israeli politics / coalition talks timelineFor:
- Israel Knesset election Oct 27 2026 polling and seat projections for Netanyahu vs Eizenkot/Bennett wanted in 1 run, last 2026-10-27Market prices Netanyahu 21.5% vs Eizenkot 64.9% but corpus has no polling; would allow edge vs price before swearing-in resolutionWould come from: polling aggregator / election forecastFor: Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
- Market-implied probability of Fed hold vs hike for Oct 27-28 2026 meeting wanted in 1 run, last 2026-10-27Price 94% for no change needs validation; corpus has no rate expectations or recent Fed communicationWould come from: Fed funds futures / CME FedWatch or recent FOMC statementsFor: Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
- Israel 2026 legislative election polling and coalition projections for next PM wanted in 1 run, last 2026-10-26PM markets trade on election outcome Oct 27 but corpus had zero documents; polling would allow edge vs 53c Eizenkot / 25c Netanyahu pricesWould come from: polling aggregator / election forecastFor: Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
Did the research help?
14 research runs from bot requests: 4 answered, 1 unused, 3 asked again, 3 too early, 3 not traceable, $3.50 spent.
| Topic | Asked by | Verdict | Cited after | Asked again | Edge over market, before → after |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| current Israeli election polling / seat projections for Likud 2026-10-30 | 3 | too early | 0 | 0 | too early (0 and 0 of 30 resolved) |
| Israeli election exit polls and seat projections for Yashar vs Likud on Oct 27 2026-10-30 | 3 | unlinked | n/a | 0 | too early (0 and 0 of 30 resolved) |
| Bulgarian Central Election Commission (cik.bg) official results for 2026 presidential election 2026-10-29 | 3 | too early | 0 | 0 | too early (0 and 0 of 30 resolved) |
| Current oil price close and Senate control polling/forecast for 2026 midterms 2026-10-29 | 3 | too early | 0 | 0 | too early (0 and 0 of 30 resolved) |
| Verified US air/missile strike report impacting Iran before Oct 31 2026-10-28 | 3 | answered | 2 | 0 | too early (0 and 0 of 30 resolved) |
| current Russia-Ukraine bilateral ceasefire negotiation status 2026-10-28 | 3 | unlinked | n/a | 0 | too early (0 and 0 of 30 resolved) |
| Recent US air/missile strikes on Iran and ceasefire status 2026-10-27 | 4 | unlinked | n/a | 0 | too early (0 and 0 of 30 resolved) |
| 2026 Senate control polling/forecasts 2026-10-27 | 5 | asked again | n/a | 2 | too early (0 and 0 of 30 resolved) |
| Count of distinct countries US has struck in 2026 to date per resolution definition 2026-10-26 | 2 | answered | 1 | 0 | too early (0 and 0 of 30 resolved) |
| FOMC pre-meeting guidance and Fed funds futures for October 2026 2026-10-26 | 2 | answered | 3 | 0 | too early (0 and 0 of 30 resolved) |
| Confirmed Trump-Putin meeting schedule or APEC Shenzhen attendance plans 2026-10-25 | 2 | unused | 0 | 1 | too early (0 and 0 of 30 resolved) |
| pre-election polling and CEC candidate list for 2026 Bulgarian presidential election 2026-10-25 | 2 | answered | 2 | 0 | too early (0 and 0 of 30 resolved) |
Counts from our own ledgers: asks recorded after each research run, the later forecasts and trades that returned or cited its profile, and the bot's edge over the market price on markets it forecast on both sides of the run, shown once each side holds 30 resolved forecasts. A market asks a topic once, so only other markets can ask again; research traces are pruned by age.
Day book: results by horizon
Does it do better on bets that resolve in hours or in days? Win rate and P&L stay hidden until a group has enough closed trades.
| Closed trades by time left when bought | Closed | In profit | P&L |
|---|---|---|---|
| under 6 hours | 0 | withheld | withheld |
| 6 to 24 hours | 6 | withheld | withheld |
| 24 to 48 hours | 1 | withheld | withheld |
| By category (first tag of the market) | |||
| other | 3 | withheld | withheld |
| boj | 2 | withheld | withheld |
| yemen | 1 | withheld | withheld |
| world | 1 | withheld | withheld |
Win rate and P&L are withheld until a group holds 30 closed trades, the same rule as the forecast verdict.
Forecast accuracy by time to resolution
| Market ended in | Resolved | Our Brier | Market Brier | Skill |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 days or less | 5 | too few | too few | n/a |
| 2 to 7 days | 18 | too few | too few | n/a |
| 7 to 30 days | 2 | too few | too few | n/a |
| over 30 days | 1 | too few | too few | n/a |
Our worst misses
Largest errors of ours among resolved markets, whoever was closer. Shown on purpose.
| Question | Result | Ours | Market | Our error | Closer | Resolved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?Base rate for a 25bp hike at any single BoC meeting is low (~10% unconditional) and lower when the economy is described as weak. Desk knows BoC held at 2.25% on July 15 [claim:clm_31a17da24b] calling economy 'weak but improving' [claim:clm_0094708c8f] and expecting inflation to ease [claim:clm_a4673ea2fb], which points to hold/cut not hike. With 4 days to Oct 28 and no hawkish evidence provided, move stays near base rate on the low side. Would raise sharply on new CPI/BoC guidance signaling tightening. | YES | 3% | 82% | 0.941 | market | 2026-10-28 |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 29?Base rate for a Saudi qualifying strike (air or surface-to-surface) on a single specific day during the current truce period is low single-digits. Desk corpus contains no claims, statements, or events indicating an imminent Saudi operation against Yemen on Oct 29 [entity:country:SA][entity:country:YE], only generic market-resolution calendars [calendar:cal-98f66b46fdfe9ac5] and an unrelated Tehran clash [event:conflict:cx-75a3ee3090da9568]. With 2 days to resolution and no trigger evidence, stay near base rate. | YES | 3% | 86% | 0.941 | market | 2026-10-30 |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?Base rate for a Russia-Ukraine diplomatic meeting in any 10-day window is low (~5-10%); status quo is no talks. Evidence shows escalation not diplomacy: Oct 19-20 strikes damaged >10 energy facilities and 550k families cut off with 76 hits in a week and energy ceasefire collapsed, Pulse Diplomatic Rupture 62/severe with no announced meeting or mediator track in evidence. With only 10 days to Oct 31 and no calendar/statement signaling talks, stay near base rate; a sudden US/Turkey-mediated contact would raise probability. | YES | 8% | 18% | 0.846 | market | 2026-10-26 |
| Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Base rate for any opposition list winning most seats vs SNS in Serbia is very low (~5-10%) - SNS has won every parliamentary election since 2012 with majorities. Evidence confirms SNS and allies are the incumbent bloc facing Students Win [clm_bf6a6600bd] in a 250-seat d'Hondt PR election needing 126 for majority [clm_b0e90d64bf] on Oct 25 [calendar:cal-1c8c8b4a31f51c7a], with structural media bias alleged to favor the Vučić-led SNS list [clm_0c26964011]. No evidence provided shows Students Win leading in polls or seats with 3 days to go. Would need credible polling showing Students Win plurality to move materially above base rate. | YES | 8% | 33% | 0.846 | market | 2026-10-26 |
| Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Base rate for SNS winning most seats is very high - it has won every Serbian parliamentary election since 2012, usually with outright majorities under the 250-seat d'Hondt PR system [clm_b0e90d64bf]. The list in the question is confirmed as the SNS-led 'Aleksandar Vučić – Ujedinjena Srbija' [clm_ff6d68151e] contesting the snap election on 2026-10-25 [calendar:cal-1c8c8b4a31f51c7a] called after Vučić's resignation [clm_b8bb8e8cae]. No evidence in the desk record points to a polling surge, united opposition lead, or cancellation that would overturn incumbency advantage with 3 days left; credible polls showing opposition ahead would lower this. | NO | 82% | 68% | 0.672 | market | 2026-10-26 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?Base rate for any specific narrow-win bracket (<4% for a specific candidate) is low - unconditional ~20-25% even in polarized Brazil, since it requires both winning and a close margin. Evidence confirms only that the Oct 25 runoff is Lula vs Flavio Bolsonaro and is roughly even, with no polling on margin provided, so little to move from base rate. With 3 days to election, a Lula win by <4% remains one of several plausible outcomes but not the modal one. | YES | 25% | 18% | 0.563 | us | 2026-10-26 |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?Base rate for an exiled/hiding opposition figure physically re-entering Venezuela in a 69-day window is low (~10%). Evidence suggests a claimed US intervention/capture of Venezuela's leadership on Oct 15 [st_68e25d1020f6], condemned by Russia [st_79d8cdf6133e] and described as invasion [st_760ec84065ec], which if true would sharply raise return likelihood. But these are delegate statements, not confirmed credible reporting of regime change or of Machado's location/plans, and no evidence shows she is poised to enter, so move only modestly above base rate. Would rise sharply with confirmed Maduro removal and Machado departure announcement. | YES | 32% | 24% | 0.462 | us | 2026-10-25 |
| Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?Base rate for a Bank of Canada meeting to result in 'no change' is high (~60-70%) as holds are the modal outcome. The only relevant evidence is the prior hold at 2.25% on July 15 [claim:clm_31a17da24b] with economy described as weak but improving [claim:clm_0094708c8f] and inflation expected to ease [claim:clm_a4673ea2fb], which does not signal a clear cut/hike bias. Desk record contains no BoC guidance, forecasts, or data for October and Turkey-Canada statements are irrelevant, so stay near base rate; fresh CPI or BoC speech would move this materially. | NO | 60% | 18% | 0.360 | market | 2026-10-28 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Base rate for an incumbent in a runoff is near 50%. Evidence shows Lula trailed Flávio Bolsonaro by ~2% in Oct 4 first round and polls were neck-and-neck nine days before Oct 25 runoff [dev:d3dc3fe6ea61][entity:person:luiz-inacio-lula-da-silva], with resolution due Oct 26 [calendar:cal-6394fd15cba7163f]. Slight underdog status from first-round deficit offsets incumbency, leaving a toss-up slightly below 50%. Actual Oct 25 vote count would move this sharply. | YES | 48% | 21% | 0.270 | us | 2026-10-26 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Base rate for a two-candidate runoff is ~50%. Evidence shows Oct 25 runoff is Lula vs Flavio Bolsonaro with first-round ~2% lead for Flavio but current polls neck-and-neck after Lula trailed [dev:d3dc3fe6ea61][claim:prof_intel_spot_brazil_s_amazon_deforestation_at_40_year_low_daily_20261017:clm_996d55c6cd], implying no clear favorite on election day. With voting today and no results in evidence, probability stays near coin-flip; official TSE count would resolve uncertainty. | NO | 50% | 80% | 0.250 | us | 2026-10-26 |
Resolved markets (26)
Newest first. Rows shaded red are markets where the market was closer to the outcome than we were. Each market counts once, by our first forecast of it.
| Question | Result | Ours | Market | Our error | Closer | Resolved |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?Base rate for a short 2-day continuation of an existing Israel-Iran ceasefire is high (~90%+), as direct air/missile strikes are rare events. The desk corpus provides no evidence of a qualifying strike or breakdown [entity:country:IR][entity:country:IL], so we stay near the base rate. A credible report of an imminent strike or a strike since market creation would sharply lower the probability. | YES | 90% | 94% | 0.010 | market | 2026-10-30 |
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 29?Base rate for a Saudi qualifying strike (air or surface-to-surface) on a single specific day during the current truce period is low single-digits. Desk corpus contains no claims, statements, or events indicating an imminent Saudi operation against Yemen on Oct 29 [entity:country:SA][entity:country:YE], only generic market-resolution calendars [calendar:cal-98f66b46fdfe9ac5] and an unrelated Tehran clash [event:conflict:cx-75a3ee3090da9568]. With 2 days to resolution and no trigger evidence, stay near base rate. | YES | 3% | 86% | 0.941 | market | 2026-10-30 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Base rate for a 25bp hike at a single FOMC meeting in the 2025-2026 cycle is low single-digits; hikes are rare outside tightening cycles and most meetings are hold/cut. Calendar confirms the October 2026 meeting is Oct 28 [calendar:cal-0e65b39517b303c2][event:calendar:cal-0e65b39517b303c2] but the desk has no inflation, labor, or Fed hawkish guidance pointing to a hike. With 2 days to resolution, a surprise hike would require an unseen shock, so stay near base rate. | NO | 3% | 5% | 0.001 | us | 2026-10-28 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?Base rate for 'no change' at a given FOMC meeting is ~55-65% historically; holds are more common than moves. Desk evidence only confirms the meeting is scheduled 2026-10-28 [calendar:cal-0e65b39517b303c2] with no data on inflation, labor, or Fed guidance to justify a cut/hike. With 2 days to resolution and no signal to move from base rate, a hold remains the slight favorite; explicit Fed communication or futures pricing would change the estimate materially. | YES | 55% | 95% | 0.203 | market | 2026-10-28 |
| Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?Base rate for a 25bp hike at any single BoC meeting is low (~10% unconditional) and lower when the economy is described as weak. Desk knows BoC held at 2.25% on July 15 [claim:clm_31a17da24b] calling economy 'weak but improving' [claim:clm_0094708c8f] and expecting inflation to ease [claim:clm_a4673ea2fb], which points to hold/cut not hike. With 4 days to Oct 28 and no hawkish evidence provided, move stays near base rate on the low side. Would raise sharply on new CPI/BoC guidance signaling tightening. | YES | 3% | 82% | 0.941 | market | 2026-10-28 |
| Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?Base rate for a Bank of Canada meeting to result in 'no change' is high (~60-70%) as holds are the modal outcome. The only relevant evidence is the prior hold at 2.25% on July 15 [claim:clm_31a17da24b] with economy described as weak but improving [claim:clm_0094708c8f] and inflation expected to ease [claim:clm_a4673ea2fb], which does not signal a clear cut/hike bias. Desk record contains no BoC guidance, forecasts, or data for October and Turkey-Canada statements are irrelevant, so stay near base rate; fresh CPI or BoC speech would move this materially. | NO | 60% | 18% | 0.360 | market | 2026-10-28 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?Base rate for a US direct strike on Iran in any 4-day window is very low (~5-10% even in crises), so YES (no qualifying strike) is the default. Evidence shows critical but stable confrontation: Hormuz mine enforcement and throttled flows persist with no new US reply via Qatar/Oman and no formal US decision to join strikes in last 3 days, and ADSB shows 13 military aircraft over Gulf/Hormuz below 14-day median peak of 15, indicating no surge. Short window to Oct 24 23:59 Iran time leaves little time for escalation absent a trigger; a new UKMTO mine confirmation, Houthi mass-casualty strike on Saudi/Aramco, or US force surge would raise NO risk. | YES | 85% | 88% | 0.022 | market | 2026-10-27 |
| Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 10%-20%?Base rate for a specific candidate winning a presidential first round by a specific 10-point margin window (10-20%) is low, roughly 10-15% unconditional. Evidence confirms the election is scheduled today 2026-10-25 [event:calendar:cal-bfe2e30caf51c205] and this margin market resolves today [event:calendar:cal-aeacb9cf14b5479f], but provides no polling, vote shares, or results for Iotova [entity:person:iliana-iotova]. With no signal on whether she wins or by how much, stay near base rate; credible first-round polls showing a 10-20 point lead would raise this sharply. | NO | 14% | 60% | 0.020 | us | 2026-10-27 |
| Will Israel election happen as scheduled?Base rate for a nationwide election scheduled 4 days away proceeding on date is high (~85-90%). Calendar lists Oct 27 Knesset election (medium confidence) and Israeli official on Oct 15 referenced elections in 12 days (=Oct 27) with deterrence warning, corroborated by Macron citing upcoming Israeli elections as context. No evidence of nationwide postponement/cancellation or snap election before date; theater shows ongoing Gaza/West Bank volatility but no election disruption signal. Short window leaves little time for institutional postponement. | YES | 84% | 92% | 0.026 | market | 2026-10-27 |
| Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by at least 40%?Base rate for a 40-point first-round margin in Bulgarian/European presidential elections is very low (single digits) - even dominant winners like Radev 2021 won by ~27 points. No evidence in desk record provides polling, candidate field, or momentum for Iliana Iotova to imply a historic landslide; only the election date is confirmed [calendar:cal-bfe2e30caf51c205]. With 4 days to election and no signal of a collapsed opposition field, stay near base rate. Would move sharply up only with credible pre-election polls showing Iotova >55% and second place <15%. | NO | 4% | 7% | 0.002 | us | 2026-10-27 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?Base rate for any specific narrow-win bracket (<4% for a specific candidate) is low - unconditional ~20-25% even in polarized Brazil, since it requires both winning and a close margin. Evidence confirms only that the Oct 25 runoff is Lula vs Flavio Bolsonaro and is roughly even, with no polling on margin provided, so little to move from base rate. With 3 days to election, a Lula win by <4% remains one of several plausible outcomes but not the modal one. | YES | 25% | 18% | 0.563 | us | 2026-10-26 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?Base rate for a specific candidate winning by a specific 4pp margin bucket (8-12%) in a Brazilian runoff is low (~10-15% unconditional: ~50% to win x ~20-25% for that margin conditional on winning). Evidence confirms only that the second round is Oct 25 between Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro with no polling on margin, so no reason to move far from base rate. Short window (3 days) leaves little time for new information to justify a large shift; credible polls showing Flavio +10 would raise it sharply. | NO | 10% | 7% | 0.010 | market | 2026-10-26 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?Base rate for a specific candidate winning a Brazilian runoff by <4% is low (~15-20%): most dated 'win by X margin' questions resolve NO and only ~2 of last 3 runoffs were decided by <4%. Evidence confirms the runoff is Lula vs Flavio Bolsonaro on Oct 25 [calendar:cal-1483f4c8fc08a40c][daily:2026-10-17:thr_spot_brazil_s_amazon_deforestation_at_40_year_low] and describes continuity as 'roughly even' implying ~50% win chance, but provides no polling on margin. P(Flavio wins narrowly)=P(win)*P(<4%|win) ~0.5*0.4-0.5 ≈0.20-0.25. No polling to move far from base rate; 3 days left leaves little time for new information. | NO | 22% | 41% | 0.048 | us | 2026-10-26 |
| Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Base rate for SNS winning most seats is very high - it has won every Serbian parliamentary election since 2012, usually with outright majorities under the 250-seat d'Hondt PR system [clm_b0e90d64bf]. The list in the question is confirmed as the SNS-led 'Aleksandar Vučić – Ujedinjena Srbija' [clm_ff6d68151e] contesting the snap election on 2026-10-25 [calendar:cal-1c8c8b4a31f51c7a] called after Vučić's resignation [clm_b8bb8e8cae]. No evidence in the desk record points to a polling surge, united opposition lead, or cancellation that would overturn incumbency advantage with 3 days left; credible polls showing opposition ahead would lower this. | NO | 82% | 68% | 0.672 | market | 2026-10-26 |
| Will Student List – Students Win win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Base rate for any opposition list winning most seats vs SNS in Serbia is very low (~5-10%) - SNS has won every parliamentary election since 2012 with majorities. Evidence confirms SNS and allies are the incumbent bloc facing Students Win [clm_bf6a6600bd] in a 250-seat d'Hondt PR election needing 126 for majority [clm_b0e90d64bf] on Oct 25 [calendar:cal-1c8c8b4a31f51c7a], with structural media bias alleged to favor the Vučić-led SNS list [clm_0c26964011]. No evidence provided shows Students Win leading in polls or seats with 3 days to go. Would need credible polling showing Students Win plurality to move materially above base rate. | YES | 8% | 33% | 0.846 | market | 2026-10-26 |
| Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?Base rate for a two-candidate second-round state race is ~50%. No Amapá-specific polling is provided; the only relevant evidence confirms the runoff is Lula vs Flavio Bolsonaro on Oct 25 [calendar:cal-1483f4c8fc08a40c][daily:2026-10-17:thr_spot_brazil_s_amazon_deforestation_at_40_year_low]. Lula won Amapá in 2022 but lost it in 2018, and incumbency/deforestation record gives a slight continuity signal, but without state polling cannot justify large deviation from 50%. Would move sharply with Amapá poll or first-round Amapá result. | YES | 52% | 34% | 0.230 | us | 2026-10-26 |
| Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?Base rate for winning a specific swing state in a national toss-up is ~50%. National runoff is Lula vs Flavio Bolsonaro on Oct 25 [calendar:cal-1483f4c8fc08a40c] and described as neck-and-neck after Lula trailed by ~2% in first round [claim:clm_996d55c6cd][daily:2026-10-17:thr_spot_brazil_s_amazon_deforestation_at_40_year_low]. No Amapá-specific polling is provided, so stay near 50%, with slight discount for Flavio because Amapá narrowly went to Lula in 2022 and is a northern state where Lula incumbency retains edge. Two days to election leaves little time for new information to shift state-level odds. | NO | 47% | 67% | 0.221 | us | 2026-10-26 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?Base rate for a specific three-way parlay (Brazil runoff Oct 25, Israel Knesset Oct 27, US Senate Nov 3) is very low - product of three independent ~30-50% events is ~3-5% even before evidence. Desk has no polling or outcome evidence for any leg, only calendar confirmation that elections are scheduled and that Brazil is Lula vs Flavio Bolsonaro runoff. With no information to move away from base rates and 15 days to resolution, joint YES remains unlikely; would need polling showing Flavio leading, Eizenkot coalition path, and Democratic Senate map advantage to raise it. | NO | 3% | 37% | 0.001 | us | 2026-10-26 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?Base rate for any specific 4-point margin bucket (4-8%) in a two-candidate runoff is low (~10-15% unconditional) since win probability is split between two candidates and then across multiple margin buckets. Evidence only confirms the runoff is Lula vs Flavio Bolsonaro on Oct 25 [calendar:cal-1483f4c8fc08a40c][daily:2026-10-17:thr_spot_brazil_s_amazon_deforestation_at_40_year_low] with 3 days left and provides no polling on vote share or margin. With no information to favor Flavio winning specifically by 4-8% vs losing or winning by other margins, stay near base rate. Credible late polls showing Flavio ahead by ~6% would raise it sharply; polls showing Lula ahead or a blowout would lower it. | NO | 14% | 34% | 0.020 | us | 2026-10-26 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Base rate for a two-candidate runoff is ~50%. Evidence shows Oct 25 runoff is Lula vs Flavio Bolsonaro with first-round ~2% lead for Flavio but current polls neck-and-neck after Lula trailed [dev:d3dc3fe6ea61][claim:prof_intel_spot_brazil_s_amazon_deforestation_at_40_year_low_daily_20261017:clm_996d55c6cd], implying no clear favorite on election day. With voting today and no results in evidence, probability stays near coin-flip; official TSE count would resolve uncertainty. | NO | 50% | 80% | 0.250 | us | 2026-10-26 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Base rate for an incumbent in a runoff is near 50%. Evidence shows Lula trailed Flávio Bolsonaro by ~2% in Oct 4 first round and polls were neck-and-neck nine days before Oct 25 runoff [dev:d3dc3fe6ea61][entity:person:luiz-inacio-lula-da-silva], with resolution due Oct 26 [calendar:cal-6394fd15cba7163f]. Slight underdog status from first-round deficit offsets incumbency, leaving a toss-up slightly below 50%. Actual Oct 25 vote count would move this sharply. | YES | 48% | 21% | 0.270 | us | 2026-10-26 |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?Base rate for a direct US air/missile strike on Iran in any 3-day window is low (~10-15% even in crises) so YES starts ~85-90%. Current theater shows critical but stable pressure - IRGC mine enforcement and Houthi intercepts continue but outlook is 'steady gradual pressure' absent a new mass-casualty trigger or US decision to join strikes, with no evidence of imminent US strike on Iran itself. Short 3-day window to Oct 22 leaves little time for escalation to cross the narrow qualifying-action threshold (direct impact on Iran). Would lower sharply on verified US strike planning, mass-casualty Houthi/Iran attack on US assets, or White House authorization signals. | YES | 82% | 96% | 0.032 | market | 2026-10-26 |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?Base rate for a Russia-Ukraine diplomatic meeting in any 10-day window is low (~5-10%); status quo is no talks. Evidence shows escalation not diplomacy: Oct 19-20 strikes damaged >10 energy facilities and 550k families cut off with 76 hits in a week and energy ceasefire collapsed, Pulse Diplomatic Rupture 62/severe with no announced meeting or mediator track in evidence. With only 10 days to Oct 31 and no calendar/statement signaling talks, stay near base rate; a sudden US/Turkey-mediated contact would raise probability. | YES | 8% | 18% | 0.846 | market | 2026-10-26 |
| Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by December 31?Base rate for an exiled/hiding opposition figure physically re-entering Venezuela in a 69-day window is low (~10%). Evidence suggests a claimed US intervention/capture of Venezuela's leadership on Oct 15 [st_68e25d1020f6], condemned by Russia [st_79d8cdf6133e] and described as invasion [st_760ec84065ec], which if true would sharply raise return likelihood. But these are delegate statements, not confirmed credible reporting of regime change or of Machado's location/plans, and no evidence shows she is poised to enter, so move only modestly above base rate. Would rise sharply with confirmed Maduro removal and Machado departure announcement. | YES | 32% | 24% | 0.462 | us | 2026-10-25 |
| Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?Base rate for a scheduled central bank meeting is to leave rates unchanged (historically ~55-65% of meetings are holds), and most dated 'will X happen' questions resolve to status quo. The desk provides no evidence on Russian inflation, guidance, or expectations for the Oct 23, 2026 Bank of Russia meeting - theaters cover CSTO/Ukraine war, calendars cover BoE/ECB, statements cover diplomacy - so there is no earned move away from base rate. With the decision due today (0 days left) and the resolution rule defaulting to 'No Change' if no release appears, staying near the hold base rate is warranted; a cut/hike cycle in Russia adds uncertainty but no directional signal is in evidence. | YES | 55% | 87% | 0.203 | market | 2026-10-23 |
| Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting?Base rate for a rate cut at any single Bank of Russia meeting is low (~30-35% vs hold/hike), and status-quo holds most often. Desk provides no direct evidence on inflation, CBR guidance, or rate expectations for the Oct 23 meeting - theaters cover war/diplomacy not monetary policy. With 0 days left, would move sharply on CBR press release/forward guidance, but on current information stay near base rate. | NO | 33% | 14% | 0.109 | market | 2026-10-23 |
How it is scored, and our older calls
Desk judgments in briefs: 0 resolved, 10 open. See the open forecasts.
Pulse watches: 11 triggered, 0 expired, 19 open; 100% of settled watches triggered. A watch is a condition, not a probability: it can be hit-rated but not Brier-scored.
For every Polymarket market on a topic we cover, a model reads the question, the market's own resolution rules and what the desk knows, and states a probability. It is never shown the market's price, and the forecast is stored with its timestamp and never edited. When the market resolves, the Brier score (mean squared error; 0 is perfect, 0.25 is a constant 50%) and log loss are computed for our probability and for the market's price at the same moment on the same markets. Void resolutions are not scored. Until 30 markets have been compared the numbers are noise and say so. Prices: Polymarket public data, read-only. Machine access: /api/v1/track-record. As of 2026-10-31 01:27 UTC.