OHMEGA/MONSTER

SituationLiving fileUS withdrawal from Iraq after 23-year presencegeopolitics

The September 30 completion of the US withdrawal from Erbil remains the defining fact with high confidence, confirmed by Pentagon, CBS and Al Jazeera

As of 3 Oct · daily

Tracked since 30 SeptReports 3 steadyCoverage steady: headlines about this situation per day steady
1 Oct: steady, flat pace2 Oct: steady, flat pace3 Oct: steady, flat pace
1 Oct3 reports3 Oct
rising steady easing · bigger mark = faster

Hottest Pulse: Iran Proxy Axis · Escalation, 99 of 100 (critical)

Every line: 1 Oct to 28 Oct, on one 0 to 100 scale.

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Last report 28 days ago

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Sat, 3 Oct 2026 · day's report → , flat pace

The September 30 completion of the US withdrawal from Erbil remains the defining fact with high confidence, confirmed by Pentagon, CBS and Al Jazeera

Numbers match the timeline. Solid mark: researched; hollow: reported. Infrastructure, lettered by type (P power plant); colour is the latest status on record: claimed struck (a party's claim only), damage reported, damage confirmed or destroyed, restored, nothing on record. A claim is a party's word, not a confirmation; marks fade as a status ages. Power plants: WRI Global Power Plant Database (CC BY 4.0).
Base map: Natural Earth (public domain). Locations: Ohmega, from today's developments; approximate. Interactive basemap: OpenFreeMap, © OpenMapTiles, data © OpenStreetMap contributors.
  1. 1 Oct2
  2. 30 Sept1
  3. 3
Assessment and what changed · the full read, since yesterday

The September 30 completion of the US withdrawal from Erbil remains the defining fact with high confidence, confirmed by Pentagon, CBS and Al Jazeera. October 1-3 has been quiet: no reported clashes, ISIS attacks, or new air-defense or militia-disarmament announcements, leaving the Kurdistan air-defense gap and the extended June 2027 weapons deadline as the central uncertainties.

Nothing changed since yesterday: No new clashes, ISIS-claimed attacks, or announcements of replacement air defenses or militia weapons handovers October 1-3; stasis on the three watch items from October 2. · Sovereignty Days holiday and political framing from September 30-October 1 remains the last substantive change; no escalation or easing detected.

Outlook, watch list and background

Outlook Quiet likely to persist in the immediate days absent a trigger, but the air-defense gap over Kurdistan and the June 2027 disarmament deadline make renewed militia or ISIS testing likely over weeks. Whether Baghdad announces a replacement air-defense purchase or any militia begins weapons handover will be the clearest signal of whether sovereignty translates into control. No new US-Iraq bilateral security arrangement has been announced to replace the coalition framework.

Watch for
  • Whether Iran-aligned militias observe a halt to attacks on Kurdistan/federal Iraq and begin any weapons handover before June 2027
  • Any ISIS-claimed attacks timed to the withdrawal in federal Iraq or Kurdistan
  • Announcement of replacement air defenses for Erbil or new US-Iraq bilateral security arrangements for training/intelligence support
Background
  • 2024Under the 2024 US-Iraq agreement, the Global Coalition mission was to end in Iraq by 2025 and Operation Inherent Resolve by end of 2026, phased as federal Iraq bases by September 2025 and Kurdistan Region by September 2026. Explains why the September 30, 2026 Erbil departure was the scheduled final step, not an abrupt decision. cbsnews.com ↗
  • 2003-2014US military presence began with March 2003 invasion to topple Saddam Hussein, ended December 2011, and resumed in 2014 at Iraq's invitation to fight ISIS under Operation Inherent Resolve. Frames the 23-year presence and 12-year anti-ISIS campaign that just ended. cbsnews.com ↗
  • 28 Feb 2026The US and Israel launched war against Iran on February 28, 2026 (Operation Epic Fury); Iran-aligned militias in Iraq launched more than 600 attacks on US citizens and facilities between February and April 2026. Recent war context that drove attacks on US forces and more than 1,000 drone/missile attacks on Kurdistan, shaping vulnerability after US air defenses left. cbsnews.com ↗
  • 2017-2025ISIS lost its territorial caliphate in 2017 and is now reduced to sleeper cells; in December 2025 two US soldiers and a translator were killed in an ISIS attack, followed by US retaliatory airstrikes. Baseline for assessing whether ISIS remnants exploit the withdrawal gap. cbsnews.com ↗

Fri, 2 Oct 2026 · day's report → , flat pace

The US withdrawal from Iraq completed September 30 remains the defining fact, with high confidence based on multiple confirmed official statements

Numbers match the timeline. Solid mark: researched; hollow: reported. Infrastructure, lettered by type (P power plant); colour is the latest status on record: claimed struck (a party's claim only), damage reported, damage confirmed or destroyed, restored, nothing on record. A claim is a party's word, not a confirmation; marks fade as a status ages. Power plants: WRI Global Power Plant Database (CC BY 4.0).
Base map: Natural Earth (public domain). Locations: Ohmega, from today's developments; approximate. Interactive basemap: OpenFreeMap, © OpenMapTiles, data © OpenStreetMap contributors.
  1. 30 Sept1
  2. 2
  3. 3
Assessment and what changed · the full read, since yesterday

The US withdrawal from Iraq completed September 30 remains the defining fact, with high confidence based on multiple confirmed official statements. October 1-2 was quiet with no reported clashes, ISIS attacks, or new security arrangements announced, leaving the air-defense gap over Kurdistan and the stalled militia disarmament as the central uncertainties.

Nothing changed since yesterday: No new attacks or security incidents reported October 1-2; withdrawal completion remains the last major change from September 30. · Militia disarmament stasis: no new handovers announced; June 30, 2027 deadline still stands and powerful Iran-linked groups still rejecting. · No announcement of replacement air defenses for Erbil or new bilateral security arrangements; Kurdistan vulnerability flagged September 30 remains unaddressed.

More developments (1)
  1. 30 Sept4
Outlook, watch list and background

Outlook No new clashes or ISIS attacks in the first 48 hours after withdrawal is likely to continue in the near term, but the underlying risks are unchanged. The air-defense gap and the extended militia disarmament timeline make it likely that the next test will be whether proxies probe Kurdistan or whether Baghdad announces replacement defenses or a new bilateral security arrangement.

Watch for
  • Whether Iran-aligned militias observe a halt to attacks on Kurdistan/federal Iraq and begin any weapons handover
  • Any ISIS-claimed attacks timed to the withdrawal in federal Iraq or Kurdistan
  • Announcement of replacement air defenses for Erbil or new US-Iraq bilateral security arrangements
Background
  • 1 Mar 2003The 23-year US presence began with the 2003 US-led invasion to topple Saddam Hussein. Frames the scale of the basing shift ending September 30, 2026. aljazeera.com ↗
  • 1 Jan 2014US forces withdrew in December 2011 under President Barack Obama after Operation Iraqi Freedom, then returned in 2014 at Iraq's invitation after ISIS seized large areas. Precedent for withdrawal and return; shows reversibility if ISIS resurges. aljazeera.com ↗
  • 27 Sept 2024Joint US-Iraq statement announced two-stage wind-down: end of Global Coalition combat operations in Iraq no later than end of September 2025, and continued coalition support for counter-ISIS operations in Syria from Iraq through September 2026 via Higher Military Commission mechanism. The formal framework that produced the September 30, 2026 completion. kurdistan24.net ↗
  • 1 Dec 2017ISIS was territorially defeated in Iraq in December 2017 and is now at its weakest with a few hundred fighters/sleeper cells per UN report, but retains cells capable of planning attacks. Baseline for judging whether Iraqi forces can contain ISIS without US enablers. aljazeera.com ↗

Thu, 1 Oct 2026 · day's report → , flat pace

The US completed its orderly withdrawal from Iraq on Sept. 30, ending a 23-year presence…

  1. 30 Sept
Assessment and what changed · the full read, since yesterday

The US completed its orderly withdrawal from Iraq on Sept. 30, ending a 23-year presence and 12-year anti-ISIS mission, with high confidence based on multiple confirmed official statements. The day was calm with no reported clashes, but the removal of US air defenses and the extension of the militia disarmament deadline to mid-2027 leave Iraq's security gap and proxy entrenchment as the central uncertainties.

More developments (1)
  1. 30 Sept
Outlook, watch list and background

Outlook The withdrawal itself is almost certain to remain complete in the near term, as it followed a negotiated two-year timeline and was executed without reported resistance. Whether security deteriorates is likely to hinge on militia compliance during the new 90-day halt window and on ISIS cells attempting attacks around the transition, but evidence so far shows no immediate escalation. Roughly even chance of increased drone/missile pressure on Kurdistan without US air defenses if no replacement is fielded.

Watch for
  • Whether Iran-aligned militias observe the 90-day halt to attacks and begin weapons handover
  • Any ISIS-claimed attacks timed to the withdrawal in federal Iraq or Kurdistan
  • Announcement of replacement air defenses for Erbil or new bilateral security arrangements
Background
  • 1 Sept 2024US-Iraq joint agreement in September 2024 set a two-stage wind-down of the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS: end combat operations in federal Iraq by September 2025, continue support for anti-ISIS operations in Syria via facilities in Iraq until September 2026. Explains why the Sept. 30, 2026 departure was the scheduled final phase, not an abrupt pullout, and why Syria operations now shift elsewhere. aljazeera.com ↗
  • 1 Mar 2003US military presence began with March 2003 invasion to topple Saddam Hussein, ended December 2011, and resumed in 2014 at Iraq's invitation to fight ISIS under Operation Inherent Resolve. Frames the 23-year span and the 12-year counter-ISIS mission that just ended. aljazeera.com ↗
  • 1 Jan 2007At the 2007 surge peak more than 160,000-170,000 US troops were in Iraq; about 2,500 remained before the final drawdown, with roughly 4,500 US deaths across the 2003-2011 and post-2014 periods. Shows scale of the drawdown from peak to final hub at Erbil and the human cost invoked in withdrawal statements. cbsnews.com ↗
  • 1 Jul 2024Combined Joint Task Force-Operation Inherent Resolve remains operational headquartered in Jordan to continue counter-ISIS operations in Syria, while US and Iraq agreed to transition to bilateral cooperation via liaison officers, training, and arms sales. Clarifies that the Iraq mission ended but the anti-ISIS structure persists outside Iraq and bilateral ties continue. i24news.tv ↗
Numbers match the timeline. Solid mark: researched; hollow: reported. Dashed purple areas: disputed or occupied territory; select one for its status and source.
Base map: Natural Earth (public domain). Locations: Ohmega, from today's developments; approximate. Disputed areas: Natural Earth (public domain). Interactive basemap: OpenFreeMap, © OpenMapTiles, data © OpenStreetMap contributors.

· Most reported: Baghdad ×4, Erbil ×2, Erbil Air Base

Background in 60 seconds

written 25 Oct

The United States has kept forces in Iraq since its 2003 invasion, while successive Iraqi governments have sought to assert sovereignty and Iran-linked militias, including Kata'ib Hezbollah, have pressed for an American exit and greater influence in Baghdad. The long presence created a contest over who guarantees security and who shapes Iraq's alignment between Washington and Tehran. A key mechanism is finance: Iraq's oil revenues have been held under the Development Fund for Iraq at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, giving Washington leverage over Baghdad's access to dollars.

Who is doing what to whom

15 actors in play; no relations recorded yet.

  • Government of Iraq 4 mentions
  • Combined Joint Task Force-Operation Inherent Resolve 3 mentions
  • Iraqi government 3 mentions
  • Kurdistan Regional Government 3 mentions
  • United States 2 mentions

Iraq and United States, by the numbers

Iraq IraqUnited States United States

Population

Iraq47M

United States342M

GDP

Iraq$254B

United States$30.8T

GDP per person

Iraq$5.4k

United States$90k

Fossil fuel output

Iraq2.6k TWh

United States23.3k TWh

Military spending

Iraq$6.2B

United States$997B

Every bar in a row is on that row's one scale. Latest year available for each figure; sources on each actor's page.

Attacks reported

attack log →

≥ 4,970 events in or near its main states, last 30 days reported by the sources; the strongest are listed. No source sees every attack.

  • 2026-10-30 · Armed clash · Los Angeles, California, United States · GDELT ↗ · machine-coded
  • 2026-10-30 · Assault or killing · Washington, District of Columbia, United States · GDELT ↗ · machine-coded
  • 2026-10-30 · Armed clash · Parkwood, North Carolina, United States · GDELT ↗ · machine-coded
  • 2026-10-30 · Armed clash · Cuyahoga County, Ohio, United States · GDELT ↗ · machine-coded

The numbers

7 figures tracked.

Where it's heading

Linked situations

Daily reports that covered it

3 Oct2 Oct1 Oct

Rebuilt 2026-10-28, and again as new reports land.